Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea08/6162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economics analysis of mitigation strategies for FMD introduction in highly concentrated animal feeding regions

Author

Listed:
  • Elbakidze, Levan
  • Highfield, Linda
  • Ward, Michael P.
  • McCarl, Bruce A.
  • Norby, Bo
Abstract
Outbreaks of infectious animal diseases can lead to substantial losses as evidenced by 2003 US BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy) event with consequent loss of export markets, and the 2001 UK FMD (Foot and Mouth Disease) outbreak that has cost estimates in the billions. In this paper we present a linked epidemiologic-economic modeling framework which is used to investigate several FMD mitigation strategies under the context of an FMD outbreak in a concentrated cattle feeding region in the US. In this study we extend the literature by investigating the economic effectiveness of some previously unaddressed strategies including early detection, enhanced vaccine availability, and enhanced surveillance under various combinations of slaughter, surveillance, and vaccination. We also consider different disease introduction points at a large feedlot, a backgrounder feedlot, a large grazing herd, and a backyard herd all in the Texas High Plains. In terms of disease mitigation strategies we evaluate the economic effectiveness of: 1. Speeding up initial detection by one week from day 14 to day 7 after initial infection; 2. Speeding up vaccine availability from one week post disease detection to the day of disease detection; 3.Doubling post event surveillance intensity. To examine the economic implications of these strategies we use a two component stochastic framework. The first component is the epidemiologic model that simulates the spread of FMD as affected by control policies and introduction scenarios. The second component is an economics module, which calculates an estimate of cattle industry losses plus the costs of implementing disease control. The results show that early detection of the disease is the most effective mechanism for minimizing the costs of outbreak. Under some circumstances enhanced surveillance also proved to be an effective strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Elbakidze, Levan & Highfield, Linda & Ward, Michael P. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Norby, Bo, 2008. "Economics analysis of mitigation strategies for FMD introduction in highly concentrated animal feeding regions," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6162, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6162
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/6162/files/463748.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.6162?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M.-J. J. Mangen & A. M. Burrell, 2003. "Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(2), pages 125-154, June.
    2. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When Is It Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 327-336, August.
    3. Sumner, Daniel A. & Bervejillo, Jose E. & Jarvis, Lovell S., 2005. "Public Policy, Invasive Species and Animal Disease Management," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20.
    4. Meyer, Jack, 1977. "Choice among distributions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 326-336, April.
    5. Thomas Marsh & Ted Schroeder & James Mintert, 2004. "Impacts of meat product recalls on consumer demand in the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 897-909.
    6. Pendell, Dustin L. & Leatherman, John & Schroeder, Ted C. & Alward, Gregory S., 2007. "The Economic Impacts of a Foot-And-Mouth Disease Outbreak: A Regional Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(s1), pages 19-33, October.
    7. Philip L. Paarlberg & John G. Lee, 1998. "Import Restrictions in the Presence of a Health Risk: An Illustration Using FMD," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 175-183.
    8. McCauley, E. Hunt & Aulaqi, Nasser A. & New, John C. Jr & Sundquist, W. Burt & Miller, William M., 1979. "A Study of the Potential Economic Impact of Food-and-Mouth Disease in the United States," Technical Bulletins 157744, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Spencer Henson & Mario Mazzocchi, 2002. "Impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy on Agribusiness in the United Kingdom: Results of an Event Study of Equity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 370-386.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.
    2. Dermot J. Hayes & Lee L. Schulz & Chad E. Hart & Keri L. Jacobs, 2021. "A descriptive analysis of the COVID‐19 impacts on U.S. pork, turkey, and egg markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 122-141, January.
    3. Dustin L Pendell & Thomas L Marsh & Keith H Coble & Jayson L Lusk & Sara C Szmania, 2015. "Economic Assessment of FMDv Releases from the National Bio and Agro Defense Facility," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Hagerman, Amy D. & Johnson, Kamina K. & Holmstrom, Lindsey & Rigney, Columb & Boyer, Tim & Schoenbaum, Melissa & Patyk, Kelly, 2018. "Saving Our Bacon without Hamstringing the Industry: Sensitivity of Economic Losses to Post-outbreak Management of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccinated Animals in a Simulated US Outbreak," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273866, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Peter R. Tozer & Thomas. L. Marsh & Evgeniy V. Perevodchikov, 2015. "Economic Welfare Impacts of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the Canadian Beef Cattle Sector," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(2), pages 163-184, June.
    6. Andrew M. McKenzie & Michael R. Thomsen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2022. "Characterizing implied volatility functions from agricultural options markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(5), pages 1605-1624, October.
    7. Seo, S. Niggol, 2010. "Is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change? A micro-econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in African agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 32-40, February.
    8. Hayes Dermot & Jacobs Keri & Schulz Lee & Crespi John, 2023. "Resilience of U.S. Cattle and Beef Sectors: Lessons from COVID-19," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 53-67, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Arnaud Rault & Stéphane Krebs, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers SMART 11-05, INRAE UMR SMART.
    3. Elbakidze, Levan, 2007. "Economic Benefits Of Animal Tracing In The Cattle Production Sector," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9510, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2005. "Ex Ante Vs. Ex Post Bioterrorism Mitigation: Better Safe Than Sorry?," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19191, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Christine Wieck & Simon W. Schlüter & Wolfgang Britz, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza–related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(8), pages 1037-1052, August.
    6. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg, 2005. "Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    7. Matthew Houser & Berna Karali, 2020. "How Scary Are Food Scares? Evidence from Animal Disease Outbreaks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 283-306, June.
    8. Anne-Célia Disdier & Stéphan Marette, 2010. "The Combination of Gravity and Welfare Approaches for Evaluating Nontariff Measures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 713-726.
    9. Olson, Lars J., 2006. "The Economics of Terrestrial Invasive Species: A Review of the Literature," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 178-194, April.
    10. Alyson S Barratt & Matthieu H Arnoult & Bouda Vosough Ahmadi & Karl M Rich & George J Gunn & Alistair W Stott, 2018. "A framework for estimating society's economic welfare following the introduction of an animal disease: The case of Johne's disease," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, June.
    11. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When Is It Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 327-336, August.
    12. Matthew Houser & Jeffrey H Dorfman & Roderick M Rejesus, 2019. "The Long‐Term Effects of Meat Recalls on Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 235-248, June.
    13. Boisvert, Richard N. & Kay, David & Turvey, Calum G., 2012. "Macroeconomic costs to large scale disruptions of food production: The case of foot- and-mouth disease in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1921-1930.
    14. Kalogeras, Nikos & Pennings, Joost M.E. & van Ittersum, Koert, 2008. "Consumer Food Safety Risk Attitudes and Perceptions Over Time: The Case of BSE Crisis," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44156, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Zhen, Chen & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 2006. "Food Safety and Habits in U.S. Meat Demand under Rational Expectations," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21287, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Frank van Tongeren & John Beghin & Stéphane Marette, 2009. "A Cost-Benefit Framework for the Assessment of Non-Tariff Measures in Agro-Food Trade," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 21, OECD Publishing.
    17. Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.
    18. Dustin L Pendell & Thomas L Marsh & Keith H Coble & Jayson L Lusk & Sara C Szmania, 2015. "Economic Assessment of FMDv Releases from the National Bio and Agro Defense Facility," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Pritchett, James G. & Thilmany, Dawn D. & Johnson, Kamina K., 2005. "Animal Disease Economic Impacts: A Survey of Literature and Typology of Research Approaches," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23.
    20. Chen Zhou & Shrihari Sridhar & Rafael Becerril-Arreola & Tony Haitao Cui & Yan Dong, 2019. "Promotions as competitive reactions to recalls and their consequences," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 702-722, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.