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The welfare impact of parallel imports: A structural approach applied to the German market for oral antidiabetics

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  • Suppliet, Moritz
  • Duso, Tomaso
  • Herr, Annika
Abstract
We investigate the welfare impact of parallel imports using a large panel data set containing monthly information on sales, ex-factory prices, and further product characteristics for all 700 antidiabetic drugs sold in Germany between 2004 and 2010. We estimate a two-stage nested logit model of demand and, based on an oligopolistic model of multi-product firms, we then recover the marginal costs and mark-ups. We finally evaluate the effect of the parallel imports' policy by calculating a counter-factual scenario without parallel trade. According to our estimates, parallel imports reduce the prices for patented and generic drugs by 39% and 0.05%, respectively. This amounts to an increase in the demand-side surplus by 11.4 million per year which is relatively small compared to the market size of around 470million. Manufacturers of original drugs, instead, lose more than half of their variable profits when parallel trade is allowed and only a small fraction of these rents are appropriated by the parallel importers.

Suggested Citation

  • Suppliet, Moritz & Duso, Tomaso & Herr, Annika, 2014. "The welfare impact of parallel imports: A structural approach applied to the German market for oral antidiabetics," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100298, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100298
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Susan J. Méndez, 2018. "Parallel trade of pharmaceuticals: The Danish market for statins," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 333-356, February.
    3. Reisinger, Markus & Saurí, Lluís & Zenger, Hans, 2019. "Parallel imports, price controls, and innovation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 163-179.
    4. Sarmah, Archita & De Giovanni, Domenico & De Giovanni, Pietro, 2020. "Compulsory licenses in the pharmaceutical industry: Pricing and R&D strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 1053-1069.
    5. Toon van der Gronde & Carin A Uyl-de Groot & Toine Pieters, 2017. "Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-34, August.
    6. Pierre Dubois & Morten Sæthre, 2020. "On the Effect of Parallel Trade on Manufacturers' and Retailers' Profits in the Pharmaceutical Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2503-2545, November.
    7. Suppliet, Moritz & Herr, Annika, 2016. "Cost-Sharing and Drug Pricing Strategies : Introducing Tiered Co-Payments in Reference Price Markets," Other publications TiSEM 4d692f0e-8577-4392-b413-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. David Granlund, 2022. "The Price Effects of Competition from Parallel Imports and Therapeutic Alternatives: Using Dynamic Models to Estimate the Causal Effect on the Extensive and Intensive Margins," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 60(1), pages 63-92, February.
    9. Farasat A.S. Bokhari & Franco Mariuzzo & Weijie Yan, 2019. "Antibacterial resistance and the cost of affecting demand: the case of UK antibiotics," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2019-03, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    10. Suppliet, Moritz, 2020. "Umbrella branding in pharmaceutical markets," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Laura Birg, 2023. "Pharmaceutical regulation under market integration through parallel trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1322-1346, November.
    12. Bokhari, Farasat A.S. & Mariuzzo, Franco, 2018. "Demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs: Logits v. AIDS," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-685.
    13. Herr, A. & Suppliet, M., 2011. "Co-Payment Exemptions and Reference Prices: an Empirical Study of Pharmaceutical Prices in Germany," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/18, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. Mats A. Bergman & David Granlund & Niklas Rudholm, 2016. "Reforming the Swedish pharmaceuticals market: consequences for costs per defined daily dose," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 201-214, September.
    15. David Granlund & Miyase Koksal-Ayhan, 2015. "Parallel imports and a mandatory substitution reform: a kick or a muff for price competition in pharmaceuticals?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(9), pages 969-983, December.
    16. Giorgio Gnecco & Berna Tuncay & Fabio Pammolli, 2018. "A Comparison of Game-Theoretic Models for Parallel Trade," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-57, September.
    17. Eduardo Costa & Carolina Santos, 2022. "Pharmaceutical pricing dynamics in an internal reference pricing system: evidence from changing drugs’ reimbursements," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(9), pages 1497-1518, December.
    18. Giorgio Gnecco & Fabio Pammolli & Berna Tuncay, 2022. "Welfare and research and development incentive effects of uniform and differential pricing schemes," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 229-268, June.
    19. Granlund David & Köksal-Ayhan Miyase Yesim, 2016. "EU Enlargement, Parallel Trade and Price Competition in Pharmaceuticals: Has the Price Competition increased?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1069-1092, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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