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Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2015 - Aufschwung gewinnt wieder an Fahrt
[German Economy Winter 2015 - The German economy is regaining momentum]

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Plödt, Martin
  • Potjagailo, Galina
Abstract
Die deutsche Konjunktur gewinnt wieder an Fahrt. Nachdem sich der Zuwachs der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion zuletzt etwas abgeschwächt hat, zeichnet sich für die kommenden Quartale ein merklich erhöhtes Expansionstempo ab. Zwar tendierte die Industrieproduktion in den vergangenen Monaten zur Schwäche, auch weil die Ausfuhren im dritten Quartal nahezu stagnierten. Allerdings war die Zuversicht der Unternehmen zuletzt wieder deutlich aufwärtsgerichtet und signalisiert eine hohe konjunkturelle Dynamik. Dies gilt vor allem für die Unternehmen im Dienstleistungssektor, die ihre Lage so gut einschätzen wie seit dem Wiedervereiniungsboom nicht mehr. Getragen wird der Aufschwung nach wie vor durch den privaten Konsum, dessen hohe Zuwächse sich aus den kräftigen realen Einkommensanstiegen der privaten Haushalte speisen. Hinzu kommt, dass die Ausfuhren, gestützt durch die Abwertung des Euro, wohl bald wieder an die hohen Zuwachsraten der ersten Jahreshälfte anknüpfen können und dass sich die allgemein sehr investitionsfreundlichen Rahmenbedingungen mehr und mehr in ein höheres Expansionstempo bei den Anlageinvestitionen übersetzen werden. Alles in allem rechnen wir mit einem Zuwachs des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 2,2 Prozent bzw. 2,3 Prozent in den Jahren 2016 und 2017, nach einem Anstieg von 1,8 Prozent im laufenden Jahr. Damit revidieren wir unsere Prognose für das kommende Jahr leicht nach oben, vor allem weil wir die zusätzlichen Aufwendungen für die Flüchtlinge nun höher einschätzen als noch vor drei Monaten.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2015 - Aufschwung gewinnt wieder an Fahrt [German Economy Winter 2015 - The German economy is regaining momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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