Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/hohdps/112017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Divergence, convergence, and the history-augmented Solow model

Author

Listed:
  • Kufenko, Vadim
  • Prettner, Klaus
  • Geloso, Vincent
Abstract
We test the history-augmented Solow model with respect to its predictions on the patterns of divergence and convergence between the nowadays industrialized countries of the OECD. We show that the dispersion of incomes increased after the Industrial Revolution, peaked during the Second World War, and decreased afterwards. This pattern is fully consistent with the transitional dynamics implied by the history-augmented Solow model.

Suggested Citation

  • Kufenko, Vadim & Prettner, Klaus & Geloso, Vincent, 2017. "Divergence, convergence, and the history-augmented Solow model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hohdps:112017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/162788/1/893324094.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cervellati, Matteo & Meyerheim, Gerrit & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "The timing of the demographic transition and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 43-46.
    2. Vincent Geloso & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2016. "Demographic change and regional convergence in Canada," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1904-1910.
    3. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kleiber, Christian, 2002. "strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 7(i02).
    4. Anthony B. Atkinson & Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "Top Incomes in the Long Run of History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-71, March.
    5. Schäfer, Andreas & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The fall and rise of inequality," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145806, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, April.
    7. Prettner, Klaus & Schäfer, Andreas, 2016. "Higher education and the fall and rise of inequality," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    8. Verspagen, Bart, 1995. "Convergence in the global economy. A broad historical viewpoint," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 143-165, June.
    9. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    10. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    11. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 553-609.
    12. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    13. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    14. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "The history augmented Solow model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 134-149.
    15. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    16. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    17. Ben-David, Dan, 1996. "Trade and convergence among countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 279-298, May.
    18. Andrew T. Young & Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy, 2008. "Sigma Convergence versus Beta Convergence: Evidence from U.S. County‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1083-1093, August.
    19. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    20. Knack, Steve, 1996. "Institutions and the Convergence Hypothesis: The Cross-National Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 87(3-4), pages 207-228, June.
    21. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    22. Miguel-Angel Martín & Agustín Herranz, 2004. "Human capital and economic growth in Spanish regions," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 10(4), pages 257-264, November.
    23. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    24. Broadberry, Stephen & Wallis, John, 2017. "Growing, Shrinking and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 11973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
    26. Vadim Kufenko & Vincent Geloso & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Does size matter? Implications of household size for economic growth and convergence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 437-443, September.
    27. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    28. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2006. "The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty and … Convergence, Period," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 351-397.
    29. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    30. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    31. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    32. Jakob B. Madsen & James B. Ang, 2016. "Finance-Led Growth in the OECD since the Nineteenth Century: How Does Financial Development Transmit to Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 552-572, July.
    33. Kufenko, Vadim & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "You can't always get what you want? Estimator choice and the speed of convergence," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    34. Malanima, Paolo, 2011. "The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 169-219, August.
    35. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    36. van Zanden, Jan Luiten & van Leeuwen, Bas, 2012. "Persistent but not consistent: The growth of national income in Holland 1347–1807," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 119-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kutuk, Yasin, 2022. "Inequality convergence: A world-systems theory approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 150-165.
    2. Corriveau, Louis, 2021. "Technologies, Institutions, development and growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 159-164.
    3. Vadim Kufenko & Vincent Geloso & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Does size matter? Implications of household size for economic growth and convergence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 437-443, September.
    4. Zhang, Junlai & Prettner, Klaus & Chen, Simiao & Bloom, David E., 2023. "Beyond GDP: Using healthy lifetime income to trace well-being over time with estimates for 193 countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    5. Agus Salim & Jun Wen & Anas Usman Bello & Firsty Ramadhona Amalia Lubis & Rifki Khoirudin & Uswatun Khasanah & Lestari Sukarniati & Muhammad Safar Nasir, 2024. "Does information and communication technology improve labor productivity? Recent evidence from the Southeast Asian emerging economies," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    3. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    4. Kufenko, Vadim & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "You can't always get what you want? Estimator choice and the speed of convergence," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    5. Fabrice Murtin & Romain Wacziarg, 2014. "The democratic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 141-181, June.
    6. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5m0od0o9jn9pqbdmos7fpt28hg is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5m0od0o9jn9pqbdmos7fpt28hg is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kawalec Paweł, 2020. "The dynamics of theories of economic growth: An impact of Unified Growth Theory," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 19-44, June.
    11. Schäfer, Andreas & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The fall and rise of inequality," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145806, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Emmanuel Bovari & Victor Court, 2019. "Energy, knowledge, and demo-economic development in the long run: a unified growth model," Working Papers hal-01698755, HAL.
    13. David E. BLOOM & Michael KUHN & Klaus PRETTNER, 2017. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    14. Bloom, David E. & Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & McGovern, Mark E. & Oxley, Les & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    15. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    16. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rodriguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2020. "Growth, War, and Pandemics: Europe in the Very Long-run," CEPR Discussion Papers 14816, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Kufenko, Vadmin & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "You can't always get what you want? A Monte Carlo analysis of the bias and the efficiency of dynamic panel data estimators," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 07/2017, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    18. Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Do you know your biases? A Monte Carlo analysis of dynamic panel data estimators," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp316, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share of income," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    20. Guo, Rongxing & Yang, Kaizhong & Liu, Yuhui, 2020. "Explaining the human and cultural puzzles: A new development theory✰," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    21. Prettner, Klaus & Schäfer, Andreas, 2016. "Higher education and the fall and rise of inequality," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    22. Werner, Katharina & Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "Human capital, basic research, and applied research: three dimensions of human knowledge and their differential growth effects," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100448, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    history-augmented Solow model; divergence; convergence; cross-country inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hohdps:112017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwhohde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.