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A single composite financial stress indicator and its real impact in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Islami, Mevlud
  • Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol
Abstract
In this paper, we construct a single composite financial stress indicator (FSI) which aims to predict developments in the real economy in the euro area. Our FSI was shown to perform better than the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index for the recent banking crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and to be able to serve as an early warning indicator for negative impacts of financial stress on the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Islami, Mevlud & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2013. "A single composite financial stress indicator and its real impact in the euro area," Discussion Papers 31/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:312013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    2. Ján Malega & Roman Horváth, 2017. "Financial Stress in the Czech Republic: Measurement and Effects on the Real Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 257-268.
    3. Akosah, Nana & Loloh, Francis & Lawson, Natalia & Kumah, Claudia, 2018. "Measuring Financial Stability in Ghana: A New Index-Based Approach," MPRA Paper 86634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    5. DRAGHIA, Andreea & STEFONI, Sorina Emanuela, 2020. "A Financial Systemic Stress Index For Romania," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 24(3), pages 41-50, September.
    6. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Alessandro Bitetto & Paola Cerchiello & Charilaos Mertzanis, 2021. "A data-driven approach to measuring financial soundness throughout the world," DEM Working Papers Series 199, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Judith Eidenberger & Benjamin Neudorfer & Michael Sigmund & Ingrid Stein, 2013. "Quantifying Financial Stability in Austria, New Tools for Macroprudential Supervision," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 26, pages 62-81.
    9. Kaelo Ntwaepelo & Grivas Chiyaba, 2022. "Financial Stability Surveillance Tools: Evaluating the Performance of Stress Indices," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    10. NAGY, Ágnes & DÉZSI-BENYOVSZKI, Annamária & SZÉKELY, Imre, 2016. "Measuring Financial Systemic Stress In Romania: A Composite Indicator Approach," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 20(3), pages 28-38.
    11. Bitetto, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2023. "Measuring financial soundness around the world: A machine learning approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stress indicator; predictability; financial crisis; real economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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