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Theoretische Zugänge eines Wachstumszwangs in der Geldwirtschaft

Author

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  • Wenzlaff, Ferdinand
  • Kimmich, Christian
  • Richters, Oliver
Abstract
Dieses Papier adressiert die Frage der Vereinbarkeit einer positiven Zinsrate mit einer nicht mehr wachsenden Wirtschaft. Die Analyse erfolgt anhand verschiedener Ansätze, die uns dazu dienen, Perspektiven einer Theorie der Wachstumsnotwendigkeit in der Geldwirtschaft zu entwickeln. Neben einem sehr breit angelegten Review und der systematischen Darstellung von Ansätzen leisten wir drei analytisch wertvolle Beiträge: Erstens bereiten wir die Forschungsfelder zur Goldenen Regel und zum Zins-Wachstums-Differential als Ansätze einer Wachstumsnotwendigkeit auf. Zweitens widerlegen wir die mancherorts zu findende These, dass allein die Kreditgeldschöpfung bereits zu einem Wachstumszwang führen würde, da der Zins eine ständige Ausweitung der Geldschöpfung bedinge. Wir zeigen auf, dass nicht die Geldschöpfung an sich zu problematisieren ist, sondern der Wachstumszwang eine Folge einkommensabhängigen Sparens in Kombination mit einem über den Vermögensmarkt zu bestimmenden Zinssatz ist. Drittens skizzieren wir ein Zentralbankdilemma aus monetärkeynesianischer Perspektive, welches darin besteht, dass die Notenbank aus beschäftigungspolitischen Überlegungen heraus den Diskontsatz senken müsste um Wachstum zu stimulieren, ihn aber zur Stabilisierung der Währung und Vermeidung von Blasen mittelfristig anheben muss und damit wirtschaftliche Stagnation induziert. Das Dilemma drückt die paradoxe Situation entwickelter Geldwirtschaften aus, eine inhärente Tendenz zur Stagnation aufzuweisen und gleichzeitig Wachstum zu benötigen, um die negativen Auswirkungen der Stagnation auf Beschäftigung und Verteilung zu lindern. Die gewählten Ansätze eröffnen weiteren Forschungsbedarf zur theoretischen Vertiefung und empirischen Prüfung der aufgeworfenen Fragen und Thesen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Richters, Oliver, 2014. "Theoretische Zugänge eines Wachstumszwangs in der Geldwirtschaft," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 45, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cessdp:45
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    2. Sebastian Strunz & Bartosz Bartkowski & Harry Schindler, 2017. "Is there a monetary growth imperative?," Chapters, in: Peter A. Victor & Brett Dolter (ed.), Handbook on Growth and Sustainability, chapter 15, pages 326-355, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2017. "Consistency and stability analysis of models of a monetary growth imperative," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 114-125.
    4. Berg, Matthew & Hartley, Brian & Richters, Oliver, 2015. "A stock-flow consistent input–output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 17(1).
    5. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2017. "Fear of stagnation? A review on growth imperatives," VÖÖ Discussion Papers 6/2017, Vereinigung für Ökologische Ökonomie e.V. (VÖÖ).
    6. Richters, Oliver, 2015. "Integrating Energy Use into Macroeconomic Stock-Flow Consistent Models," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 154764, September.
    7. Richters, Oliver, 2014. "Bürgerpartizipation für Energiewende und Wachstumswende," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 114-120.

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    Keywords

    Wachstumszwang; Goldene Regel der Kapitalakkumulation; Zins-Wachstums-Differential; Zentralbankdilemma; Monetärkeynesianismus;
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