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Financial vs. Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Sangyup Choi

    (Yonsei University)

  • Myungkyu Shim

    (Sogang University)

Abstract
While the negative effect of uncertainty shocks on the economy is well-known, little is known about the extent to which these e ects di er across the measures of uncertainty, especially in emerging market economies. Using the newly available economic policy uncertainty index from six emerging market economies (Brazil, Chile, China, India, Korea, and Russia), we compare the impact of financial uncertainty shocks|measured by stock market volatility|and that of policy uncertainty shocks on the economy. We find that nancial uncertainty shocks have much larger and more significant impact on output than policy uncertainty shocks, except for China where the government has direct controls over financial markets. While our finding differs from the previous finding that policy uncertainty has no smaller effects on economic activity than nancial uncertainty in advanced economies, it is consistent with the recent emphasis on nancial frictions as a propagation mechanism of uncertainty shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sangyup Choi & Myungkyu Shim, 2018. "Financial vs. Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Working papers 2018rwp-116, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:yon:wpaper:2018rwp-116
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki-Nayeri, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Policy Uncertainty on Domestic Investment in G7 Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 675-693, September.
    2. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Shin, Minchul & Zhang, Boyuan & Zhong, Molin & Lee, Dong Jin, 2018. "Measuring international uncertainty: The case of Korea," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 22-26.
    4. Sharma, Chandan & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty dampen imports? Commodity-level evidence from India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-149.
    5. Ghirelli, Corinna & Pérez, Javier J. & Urtasun, Alberto, 2021. "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    6. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
    7. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and FDI Flows: The Role of Institutional Quality and Financial Development," Working papers 2019rwp-144, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    8. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & Zhao, Yupei & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "The role of US implied volatility index in forecasting Chinese stock market volatility: Evidence from HAR models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 311-333.
    9. Xu, Can, 2023. "Do households react to policy uncertainty by increasing savings?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 770-785.
    10. Corinna Ghirelli & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty in Latin America: measurement using Spanish newspapers and economic spillovers," Working Papers 2024, Banco de España.
    11. Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So & Jongrim Ha, 2018. "Identifying Uncertainty Shocks due to Geopolitical Swings in Korea," Working Papers 2018-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    12. Yeonggyu Yun & Hye-Young Jung, 2020. "Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Household Consumption and Working Hours: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.
    13. Nicholas Apergis, 2022. "Evaluating tail risks for the U.S. economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3971-3989, October.
    14. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    15. Lin Chuan & Stavros Sindakis & Panagiotis Theodorou, 2024. "Examining the Impact of Political Stability on Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8179-8208, June.
    16. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2022. "Whose policy uncertainty matters in the trade between China and the U.S.?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1497-1542, August.
    19. Kevin Larcher & Jaebeom Kim & Youngju Kim, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and asymmetric dynamics in Korea: a non-linear approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 594-610, February.
    20. Gian Paulo Soave, 2020. "International Drivers of Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 716-726.
    21. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2021. "The supply and demand-side impacts of uncertainty shocks. Evidence on advanced and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 108739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Meng Yan & Kai Shi, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from China’s Investment Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 457-495, July.
    23. Idriss Fontaine, 2017. "This paper investigates whether the effects of uncertainty shocks on the French economy are heterogeneous. By exploiting two different measures of uncertainty, one reflecting policy uncertainty and an," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2835-2845.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial uncertainty; Policy uncertainty; Emerging market economies; Financial frictions; Vector Autoregressions; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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