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Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: Utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships

Author

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  • Katarzyna Maciejowska
  • Rafal Weron
Abstract
We show that incorporating the intra-day and inter-zone relationships of electricity prices in the Pennsylvania--New Jersey--Maryland (PJM) Interconnection improves the accuracy of short- and medium-term forecasts of average daily prices for a major PJM market hub -- the Dominion Hub in Virginia, U.S. The forecasting performance of four multivariate models calibrated to hourly and/or zonal day-ahead prices is evaluated and compared with that of a univariate model, which uses only average daily data for the Dominion Hub. The multivariate competitors include a restricted vector autoregressive model and three factor models with the common and idiosyncratic components estimated using principal components in a semiparametric setup. The results indicate that there are forecast improvements from incorporating the additional information, essentially for all considered forecast horizons ranging from one day to two months, but only when the correlation structure of prices across locations and hours is modeled using factor models.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: Utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1311
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    File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_13_11.pdf
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    3. Caston Sigauke & Murendeni Maurel Nemukula & Daniel Maposa, 2018. "Probabilistic Hourly Load Forecasting Using Additive Quantile Regression Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Gianfreda, Angelica & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2020. "Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 974-986.
    5. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    7. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    9. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Philip Beran & Arne Vogler, 2021. "Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparison of fundamental, econometric and hybrid Models," EWL Working Papers 2102, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    11. Bastos, Guadalupe & García-Martos, Carolina, 2017. "Electricity prices forecasting by averaging dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24028, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    12. Andrés M. Alonso & Guadalupe Bastos & Carolina García-Martos, 2016. "Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Ostap Okhrin & Stefan Trück, 2015. "Editorial to the special issue on Applicable semiparametrics of computational statistics," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 641-646, September.
    14. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    15. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    16. Duván Humberto Cataño & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & Daniel Peña, 2019. "Wavelet Estimation for Dynamic Factor Models with Time-Varying Loadings," CREATES Research Papers 2019-23, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Fabrizio Leisen & Luca Rossini & Cristiano Villa, 2020. "Loss-based approach to two-piece location-scale distributions with applications to dependent data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(2), pages 309-333, June.
    18. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wholesale electricity price; Forecasting; Vector autoregression; Factor model; Principal components; PJM market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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