Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wus045/6914.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Natural Disasters, Cascading Losses, and Economic Complexity: A Multi-layer Behavioral Network Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Naqvi, Asjad
  • Monasterolo, Irene
Abstract
Assessing the short-term socio-economic impacts of climate-led disasters on food trade networks requires new bottom-up models and vulnerability metrics rooted in complexity theory. Indeed, such shocks could generate cascading socio-economic losses across the networks layers where emerging agents¿ responses could trigger tipping points. We contribute to address this research gap by developing a multi-layer behavioral network methodology composed of multiple spatially-explicit layers populated by heterogeneous interacting agents. Then, by introducing a new multi-layer risk measure called vulnerability rank, or VRank, we quantify the stress in the aftermath of a shock. Our approach allows us to analyze both the supply- and the demand-side dimensions of the shock by quantifying short-term behavioral responses, the transmission channels across the layers, the conditions for reaching tipping points, and the feedback on macroeconomic indicators. By simulating a stylized two-layer supply-side production and demand-side household network model we find that, (i) socio-economic vulnerability to climate-led disasters is cyclical, (ii) the distribution of shocks depends critically on the network structure, and on the speed of supply-side and demand-side responses. Our results suggest that such a multi-layer framework could provide a comprehensive picture of how climate-led shocks cascade and how indirect losses can be measured. This is crucial to inform effective post-disaster policies aimed to build food trade network resilience to climate-led shocks, in particular in more agriculture-dependent bread-basket regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Naqvi, Asjad & Monasterolo, Irene, 2019. "Natural Disasters, Cascading Losses, and Economic Complexity: A Multi-layer Behavioral Network Approach," Ecological Economic Papers 24, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus045:6914
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://epub.wu.ac.at/6914/
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stéphane Hallegatte & Valentin Przyluski, 2010. "The Economics of Natural Disasters," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 14-24, July.
    2. Howarth, Candice & Monasterolo, Irene, 2016. "Understanding barriers to decision making in the UK energy-food-water nexus: The added value of interdisciplinary approaches," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-60.
    3. David Strömberg, 2007. "Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 199-222, Summer.
    4. Robalino, Juan & Jimenez, José & Chacón, Adriana, 2015. "The Effect of Hydro-Meteorological Emergencies on Internal Migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 438-448.
    5. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    6. Hallegatte, Stephane & Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Dumas, Patrice, 2007. "Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: Illustration on extreme events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 330-340, April.
    7. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    8. Ward, Patrick & Shively, Gerald, 2012. "Vulnerability, Income Growth and Climate Change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 916-927.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    10. Marcel Fafchamps & Forhad Shilpi, 2013. "Determinants of the Choice of Migration Destination," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(3), pages 388-409, June.
    11. Stéphane Hallegatte & Katharine J. Mach, 2016. "Make climate-change assessments more relevant," Nature, Nature, vol. 534(7609), pages 613-615, June.
    12. J. -F. Mercure & H. Pollitt & A. M. Bassi & J. E Vi~nuales & N. R. Edwards, 2015. "Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy," Papers 1506.07432, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    13. Auffret, Philippe, 2003. "High consumption volatility : the impact of natural disasters?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2962, The World Bank.
    14. Hausmann, Ricardo & Neffke, Frank M.H., 2019. "The workforce of pioneer plants," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 628-648.
    15. Battiston Stefano & Caldarelli Guido & D’Errico Marco & Gurciullo Stefano, 2016. "Leveraging the network: A stress-test framework based on DebtRank," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(3-4), pages 117-138, December.
    16. Monasterolo, Irene & Raberto, Marco, 2019. "The impact of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the low-carbon transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 355-370.
    17. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 860-872, September.
    18. Naoussi, Claude Francis & Tripier, Fabien, 2013. "Trend shocks and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-42.
    19. Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2003. "Economic Crises and Natural Disasters: Coping Strategies and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1087-1102, July.
    20. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    21. Glaeser, Edward L & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1126-1152, December.
      • Edward L. Glaeser & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1991. "Growth in Cities," NBER Working Papers 3787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Glaeser, Edward Ludwig & Kallal, Hedi D. & Scheinkman, Jose A. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Scholarly Articles 3451309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    22. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    23. Pierre-Alexandre Balland & Cristian Jara-Figueroa & Sergio G. Petralia & Mathieu P. A. Steijn & David L. Rigby & César A. Hidalgo, 2020. "Complex economic activities concentrate in large cities," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 248-254, March.
    24. J. Doyne Farmer & Duncan Foley, 2009. "The economy needs agent-based modelling," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 685-686, August.
    25. Goyal, Sanjeev & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2005. "Network formation and social coordination," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 178-207, February.
    26. Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Globally networked risks and how to respond," Nature, Nature, vol. 497(7447), pages 51-59, May.
    27. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
    28. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    29. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2006. "Agent-Based Computational Economics: A Constructive Approach to Economic Theory," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 831-880, Elsevier.
    30. Fleming, Lee & Sorenson, Olav, 2001. "Technology as a complex adaptive system: evidence from patent data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1019-1039, August.
    31. Stefan Dercon, 2002. "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 141-166, September.
    32. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    33. Stefan Thurner & Sebastian Poledna, 2013. "DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks," Papers 1301.6115, arXiv.org.
    34. Marco Bardoscia & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "DebtRank: A Microscopic Foundation for Shock Propagation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    35. Hausmann, Ricardo & Nedelkoska, Ljubica, 2018. "Welcome home in a crisis: Effects of return migration on the non-migrants' wages and employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-132.
    36. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Concepts and measurement of vulnerability to poverty and other issues: a review of literature," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber & Guanghua Wan (ed.), The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 3, pages 53-83, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    37. Narasimha D. Rao & Bas J. van Ruijven & Keywan Riahi & Valentina Bosetti, 2017. "Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 857-862, December.
    38. Nicholas Stern, 2016. "Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading," Nature, Nature, vol. 530(7591), pages 407-409, February.
    39. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    40. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    41. Stephane Hallegatte & Mook Bangalore & Laura Bonzanigo & Marianne Fay & Tamaro Kane & Ulf Narloch & Julie Rozenberg & David Treguer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2016. "Shock Waves," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22787.
    42. Alessandro Tavoni & Simon Levin, 2014. "Managing the climate commons at the nexus of ecology, behaviour and economics," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1057-1063, December.
    43. Ghimire, Ramesh & Ferreira, Susana & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2015. "Flood-Induced Displacement and Civil Conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 614-628.
    44. Giorgio Fagiolo & Marina Mastrorillo, 2014. "Does Human Migration Affect International Trade? A Complex-Network Perspective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-20, May.
    45. Hallegatte, Stephane & Przyluski, Valentin, 2010. "The economics of natural disasters : concepts and methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5507, The World Bank.
    46. Naqvi, Asjad, 2017. "Deep Impact: Geo-Simulations as a Policy Toolkit for Natural Disasters," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-418.
    47. Axelrod, Robert & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2006. "A Guide for Newcomers to Agent-Based Modeling in the Social Sciences," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12515, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    48. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    49. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, April.
    50. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chenet, Hugues & Ryan-Collins, Josh & van Lerven, Frank, 2021. "Finance, climate-change and radical uncertainty: Towards a precautionary approach to financial policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asjad Naqvi & Franziska Gaupp & Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, 2020. "The risk and consequences of multiple breadbasket failures: an integrated copula and multilayer agent-based modeling approach," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 42(3), pages 727-754, September.
    2. Ciarli, Tommaso & Savona, Maria, 2019. "Modelling the Evolution of Economic Structure and Climate Change: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 51-64.
    3. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    4. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    9. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    10. Otto, Christian & Willner, Sven Norman & Wenz, Leonie & Frieler, Katja & Levermann, Anders, 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," OSF Preprints 7yyhd, Center for Open Science.
    11. Naqvi, Asjad, 2017. "Deep Impact: Geo-Simulations as a Policy Toolkit for Natural Disasters," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-418.
    12. Naqvi, Asjad & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2018. "Directed Technological Change in a Post-Keynesian Ecological Macromodel," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-188.
    13. Otto, C. & Willner, S.N. & Wenz, L. & Frieler, K. & Levermann, A., 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 232-269.
    14. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    15. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Antoine Mandel & Timothy Tiggeloven & Daniel Lincke & Elco Koks & Philip Ward & Jochen Hinkel, 2021. "Risks on global financial stability induced by climate change: the case of flood risks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-24, May.
    18. Taberna, Alessandro & Filatova, Tatiana & Roventini, Andrea & Lamperti, Francesco, 2022. "Coping with increasing tides: Evolving agglomeration dynamics and technological change under exacerbating hazards," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    19. Alessandro Taberna & Tatiana Filatova & Andrea Roventini & Francesco Lamperti, 2021. "Coping with increasing tides: technological change, agglomeration dynamics and climate hazards in an agent-based evolutionary model," LEM Papers Series 2021/44, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Beyond climate economics orthodoxy: impacts and policies in the agent-based integrated-assessment DSK model," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 357-380, December.
    22. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    23. Tommaso Ciarli & Karolina Safarzynska, 2020. "Sustainability and Industrial Challenge: The Hindering Role of Complexity," SPRU Working Paper Series 2020-18, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    24. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    complexity economics; multi-layer networks; behavioral economics; food trade; climate-led shocks; vulnerability rank; post-disaster policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wus045:6914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: WU Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://research.wu.ac.at/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.