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A Reappraisal of the Migration-Development Nexus : Testing the Robustness of the Migration Transition Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Leefmans,Naomi
  • Oomes,Nienke
  • Rojas Romagosa,Hugo Alexander
  • Vervliet,Tobias
  • Berthiaume,Nicolas
Abstract
This paper tests the migration transition hypothesis that emigration flows first increase and later decrease with a country’s economic development. Using a migration version of the gravity model, this hypothesis is tested on a global panel data set comprising 180 origin and destination countries and a 50-year timeframe (1970-2020). This is the most extensive panel data set used so far to test the migration transition hypothesis. The results confirm the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between development and emigration within a cross-country panel setting. Nevertheless, the migration hump cannot be interpreted as a causal relationship: for a given low-income country, an increase in economic development is not found to lead to higher emigration. For a subsample of 44 countries that have transitioned from low-income to middle-income status, emigration has rather declined with economic development. The migration transition hypothesis is therefore unfounded. Instead, the migration hump appears to be driven by an underlying cross-sectional pattern that cannot be fully controlled: middle-income countries tend to exhibit higher emigration rates than low- or high-income countries. The findings of this paper have important policy implications: development programs can simultaneously promote economic development and reduce emigration.

Suggested Citation

  • Leefmans,Naomi & Oomes,Nienke & Rojas Romagosa,Hugo Alexander & Vervliet,Tobias & Berthiaume,Nicolas, 2021. "A Reappraisal of the Migration-Development Nexus : Testing the Robustness of the Migration Transition Hypothesis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9518, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9518
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Migration and Development; International Trade and Trade Rules; Social Cohesion; Natural Disasters;
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