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The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply : a global CGE assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Timilsina, Govinda R.
  • Beghin, John C.
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
  • Mevel, Simon
Abstract
This study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier, it would be significant in developing countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Timilsina, Govinda R. & Beghin, John C. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply : a global CGE assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5513, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5513
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. John D. Mullen & Michael K. Wohlgenant & Donald E. Farris, 1988. "Input Substitution and the Distribution of Surplus Gains from Lower U.S. Beef-Processing Costs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(2), pages 245-254.
    3. World Bank, 2009. "Global Economic Prospects 2009 : Commodities at the Crossroads," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2581.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Food&Beverage Industry; Wetlands; Crops&Crop Management Systems; Renewable Energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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