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An Empirical Characteristic Function Approach to VaR under a Mixture of Normal Distribution with Time-Varying Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Dinghai Xu

    (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo)

  • Tony S. Wirjanto

    (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo)

Abstract
This paper considers Value at Risk measures constructed under a discrete mixture of normal distribution on the innovations with time-varying volatility, or MN-GARCH, model. We adopt an approach based on the continuous empirical characteristic function to estimate the param eters of the model using several daily foreign exchange rates' return data. This approach has several advantages as a method for estimating the MN-GARCH model. In particular, under certain weighting measures, a closed form objective distance function for estimation is obtained. This reduces the computational burden considerably. In addition, the characteristic function, unlike its likelihood function counterpart, is always uniformly bounded over parameter space due to the Fourier transformation. To evaluate the VaR estimates obtained from alternative specifications, we construct several measures, such as the number of violations, the average size of violations, the sum square of violations and the expected size of violations. Based on these measures, we find that the VaR measures obtained from the MN-GARCH model outperform those obtained from other competing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinghai Xu & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2008. "An Empirical Characteristic Function Approach to VaR under a Mixture of Normal Distribution with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Papers 08008, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:08008
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    File URL: http://economics.uwaterloo.ca/documents/Xu-mn-garch-var.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dinghai Xu, 2009. "The Applications of Mixtures of Normal Distributions in Empirical Finance: A Selected Survey," Working Papers 0904, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2009.
    2. Jiro Hodoshima & Toshiyuki Yamawake, 2020. "The Aumann–Serrano Performance Index for Multi-Period Gambles in Stock Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Tony S. Wirjanto & Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Zhongxian Men, 2013. "Stochastic Conditional Duration Models with Mixture Processes," Working Paper series 29_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

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    Keywords

    Value at Risk; Mixture of Normals; GARCH; Characteristic Function.;
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