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Cattle Cycles, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Age Distribution of Capital

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  • David Aadland
Abstract
This paper builds a dynamic forward-looking model describing the approximate ten-year cattle cycle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by (1) keeping track of the age distribution of the capital stock, (2) allowing for heterogeneous expectations, and (3) recognizing that cow-calf operators make investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins. The model is then calibrated and used to simulate artificial data that endogenously generates ten-year cycles in the total stock of cattle.

Suggested Citation

  • David Aadland, 2001. "Cattle Cycles, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Age Distribution of Capital," Working Papers 2002-02, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:usu:wpaper:2002-02
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    5. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 98-115, April.
    6. Astrid Fliessbach & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Cycles in cattle and hog prices in South America," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1167-1183, October.
    7. Poddaturi, Dinesh R. & Hart, Chad E. & Schulz, Lee L. & Pouliot, Sébastien, 2020. "A Dynamic Model of U.S. Beef Cattle," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800001057, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach," 2015 International European Forum (144th EAAE Seminar), February 9-13, 2015, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 206210, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    9. Peter Tozer & Thomas L. Marsh, 2012. "Domestic and trade impacts of foot-and-mouth disease on the Australian beef industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 385-404, July.
    10. Zhao, Huan & Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Rationalizing Time Series Differences Between Cow-Calf And Feeder Returns," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49486, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    12. Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.
    13. Andrew P. Barnes, 2023. "The role of family life‐cycle events on persistent and transient inefficiencies in less favoured areas," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 295-315, February.
    14. Peter R. Tozer & Thomas. L. Marsh & Evgeniy V. Perevodchikov, 2015. "Economic Welfare Impacts of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the Canadian Beef Cattle Sector," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(2), pages 163-184, June.
    15. Ashutosh Vashishtha, 2020. "Cobweb price dynamics under the presence of agricultural futures market: theoretical analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 131-162, June.
    16. Edgar E. Twine & James Rude & Jim Unterschultz, 2016. "Canadian Cattle Cycles and Market Shocks," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 119-146, March.
    17. Ranjan, Ram & Lubowski, Ruben N., 2004. "A Model of Producer Incentives for Livestock Disease Management," Working Papers 15653, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center.
    18. Cosnard, Lionel, 2018. "Modeling the emergence of hysteresis in agri-food sectors," Conference papers 332955, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
    20. Naevdal, Eric & Olaussen, Jon Olaf & Skonhoft, Anders, 2012. "A bioeconomic model of trophy hunting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 194-205.
    21. Stockton, Matthew C. & Van Tassell, Larry W., 2007. "The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37564, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    22. Li, Yunhan & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2021. "The Vanishing U.S. Cattle Cycle: A Stochastic Cycle Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(3), September.

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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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