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A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests

Author

Listed:
  • Goller, Daniel
  • Heiniger, Sandro
Abstract
We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants, to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Goller, Daniel & Heiniger, Sandro, 2022. "A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests," Economics Working Paper Series 2204, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2022:04
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    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/econwp/EWP-2204.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event importance; Football; Front-loading; Incentives; Multi-event contest;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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