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On Model Selection and Markov-Switching: An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts

Author

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  • John Driffill
  • Turalay Kenc
  • Martin Sola
  • Fabio Spagnolo
Abstract
We examine several discrete-time term-structure models, in which the short rate is subject to discrete shifts. Our empirical analysis suggests that inquiring which parameters of the short-term interest rate equation are allowed to switch is crucial. Failing to do so may result in switching pricing models that produce no improvement (in terms of pricing) with respect to models which do not allow for regime switching, even when there are clear breaks in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • John Driffill & Turalay Kenc & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2008. "On Model Selection and Markov-Switching: An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2008-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    2. Choi Seungmoon, 2009. "Regime-Switching Univariate Diffusion Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure of interest rates; bond yields; stochastic discount factor; and regime switching.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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