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The Phillips curve and the Italian lira, 1861-1998

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandra Del Boca
  • Michele Fratianni
  • Franco Spinelli
  • Carmine Trecroci
Abstract
We examine Italian inflation rates and the Phillips curve with a very long-run perspective, one that covers the entire existence of the Italian lira from political unification (1861) to Italy’s entry in the European Monetary Union (end of 1998). We first study the volatility, persistence and stationarity of the Italian inflation rate over the long run and across various exchange-rate regimes that have shaped Italian monetary history. Next, we estimate alternative Phillips equations and investigate whether nonlinearities, asymmetries and structural changes characterize the inflation-output trade-off in the long run. We capture the effects of structural changes and asymmetries on the estimated parameters of the inflation-output trade-off, relying partly on sub-sample estimates and partly on time-varying parameters estimated via the Kalman filter. Finally, we investigate causal relationships between inflation rates and output and extend the analysis to include the US and the UK for comparison purposes. The inference is that Italy has experienced a conventional inflation-output trade-off only during times of low inflation and stable aggregate supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2009. "The Phillips curve and the Italian lira, 1861-1998," Working Papers 0908, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:0908
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Macroeconomic Instability and the Phillips Curve in Italy," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 19-44.
    2. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    3. Alessandro Fedele & Paolo M. Panteghini & Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax‐Rate Uncertainty," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(4), pages 438-468, November.
    4. A. Fedele & A. Mantovani & F. Liucci, 2010. "Credit availability in the crisis: which role for the European Investment Bank Group?," Working Papers 699, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. Alessandro Fedele & Raffaele Miniaci, 2010. "Do Social Enterprises Finance Their Investments Differently from For-profit Firms? The Case of Social Residential Services in Italy," Journal of Social Entrepreneurship, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 174-189, October.
    6. Martin Meier & Enrico Minelli & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2014. "Competitive markets with private information on both sides," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(2), pages 257-280, February.
    7. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    8. Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2009. "Decentralized provision of merit and impure public goods," Working Papers 0909, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    9. Francesco Menoncin & Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "Retrospective Capital Gains Taxation in the Real World," CESifo Working Paper Series 2674, CESifo.
    10. Bisin, A. & Geanakoplos, J.D. & Gottardi, P. & Minelli, E. & Polemarchakis, H., 2011. "Markets and contracts," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 279-288.
    11. Alessandro Fedele & Andrea Mantovani, 2010. "The Importance of Being Consulted," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(2), pages 231-245, November.
    12. Alessandro Fedele & Francesco Liucci & Andrea Mantovani, 2009. "Credit availability in the crisis: the European investment bank group," Working Papers 0913, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    13. Stamatiou, Pavlos & Dritsaki, Chaido, 2019. "The Phillips Curve: Unemployment Dynamics and Nairu Estimates of Poland’s Economy," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(3), pages 281-312.
    14. Francesca Barion & Raffaele Miniaci & Paolo Panteghini & Maria Laura Parisi, 2010. "Profit Shifting by Debt Financing in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2985, CESifo.
    15. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Testing The Existence And Stability Of Phillips Curve In Romania," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 10(1), pages 67-74.
    16. Mario Cassetti, 2010. "Macroeconomic outcomes of changing bargaining relationships in open economies. The feasibility of a wage-led economy reconsidered," Working Papers 1004, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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