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Intergenerational Transmission of Lockdown Consequences: Prognosis of the Longer-run Persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America

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  • Guido Neidhöfer
  • Nora Lustig
  • Mariano Tommasi
Abstract
The shock on human capital caused by COVID-19 is likely to have long lasting consequences, especially for children of low-educated families. Applying a counterfactual exercise we project the effects of school closures and other lockdown policies on the intergenerational persistence of education in 17 Latin American countries. First, we retrieve detailed information on school lockdowns and on the policies enacted to support education from home in each country. Then, we use this information to estimate the potential impact of the pandemic on schooling, high school completion, and intergenerational associations. In addition, we account for educational disruptions related to household income shocks. Our findings show that, despite that mitigation policies were able to partly reduce instructional losses in some countries, the educational attainment of the most vulnerable could be seriously affected. In particular, the likelihood of children from low educated families to attain a secondary schooling degree could fall substantially.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Mariano Tommasi, 2020. "Intergenerational Transmission of Lockdown Consequences: Prognosis of the Longer-run Persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 99, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tul:ceqwps:99
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    1. Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis & Vélez-Grajales, Roberto & López-Calva, Luis F., 2022. "The potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on learnings," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Matías Ciaschi & Johanna Fajardo-Gonzalez & Mariana Viollaz, 2024. "Navigating Educational Disruptions: The Gender Divide in Parental Involvement and Children’s Learning Outcomes," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0332, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    3. Gray Molina George & Montoya-Aguirre María & Ortiz-Juarez Eduardo, 2022. "Temporary Basic Income in Times of Pandemic: Rationale, Costs and Poverty-Mitigation Potential," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 125-154, December.
    4. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Guido Neidhöfer & Mariano Tommasi, 2020. "Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America," Working Papers 2013, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    5. Neidhöfer, Guido & Lustig, Nora & Larroulet, Patricio, 2022. "Nowcasting the impact of COVID-19 on education, intergenerational mobility and earnings inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-022, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Brunckhorst, Ben & Cojocaru, Alexandru & Kim, Yeon Soo & Kugler, Maurice, 2024. "Long COVID: The evolution of household welfare in developing countries during the pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    7. Marín Llanes, Lucas & Rodríguez Pico, Mariana & Maldonado, Darío & García, Sandra, 2023. "Learning inequality during Covid-19: Evidence from secondary schools in Colombia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis Angel, 2021. "Modelling the learning impacts of educational disruptions in the short and long run," SocArXiv z6x5s, Center for Open Science.
    9. Weller, Jürgen, 2022. "Tendencias mundiales, pandemia de COVID-19 y desafíos de la inclusión laboral en América Latina y el Caribe," Documentos de Proyectos 48610, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Luísa Nazareno & Juliana Castro Galvao, 2023. "The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Poverty, Inequality, and Employment During COVID-19: A Case Study from Brazil," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-30, April.
    11. Andrés Ham & Juanita Ruiz & Oscar Iván Pineda-Diaz & Natalia Iriarte-Tovar & Juan Sebastián Cifuentes & María Fernanda Rodríguez-Camacho & Laura Feliza Vélez, 2022. "Promoting in-person attendance for early childhood services after the COVID-19 pandemic using text messages," Documentos de trabajo 20773, Escuela de Gobierno - Universidad de los Andes.
    12. Taejong Kim & Hyosun Kim, 2022. "A “Ballpark” Assessment of Social Distancing Efficiency in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-10, February.
    13. Acosta, Felicitas, 2022. "Diversification of the structure of secondary education and educational segmentation in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 47836, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    14. Narayan,Ambar & Cojocaru,Alexandru & Agrawal,Sarthak & Bundervoet,Tom & Davalos,Maria Eugenia & Garcia,Natalia & Lakner,Christoph & Mahler,Daniel Gerszon & Montalva Talledo,Veronica Sonia & Ten,Andrey, 2022. "COVID-19 and Economic Inequality : Short-Term Impacts with Long-Term Consequences," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9902, The World Bank.
    15. Valenzuela, Juan Pablo & Yáñez, Natalia, 2022. "Trajectory and policies for inclusion in higher education in Latin America and the Caribbean in the context of the pandemic: Two decades of progress and challenges," Documentos de Proyectos 47979, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; lockdowns; human capital; school closures; intergenerational persistence; education; inequality; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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