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Short-Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Abul Shamsuddin

    (University of Newcastle)

  • Jae H Kim

    (School of Economics, La Trobe University)

Abstract
This study measures the degree of short-horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple-horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross-sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita GDP, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short selling restrictions are correlated with cross-market variations in return predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Abul Shamsuddin & Jae H Kim, 2009. "Short-Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets," Working Papers 2009.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:2009.01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2014. "African Stock Markets: Efficiency and Relative Predictability," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 258-275, June.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim & Etienne Redor, 2016. "Stock Exchange Mergers and Market," Post-Print hal-01238707, HAL.
    4. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
    5. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2016. "On Modelling and Forecasting Predictable Components in European Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 487-502, October.
    6. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B., 2021. "Market Efficiency of Asian Stocks: Evidence based on Narayan-Liu-Westerlund GARCH-based Unit root test," MPRA Paper 109828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Quynh Trang Phan & Poomthan Rangkakulnuwat, 2022. "How price informativeness affects the sensitivity of investment-to-stock price in Vietnamese listed firms," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 28-61.
    8. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2021. "Liquidity and short-run predictability: Evidence from international stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Am鬩e Charles & Olivier Darn頍 & Jae H. Kim & Etienne Redor, 2016. "Stock exchange mergers and market efficiency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 576-589, February.
    10. Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2016. "The Relative Predictability of Stock Markets in the Americas," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 131-142, April.
    11. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return predictability; variance ratio test; international equity markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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