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Health Risk and the Welfare Effects of Social Security

Author

Listed:
  • Shantanu Bagchi

    (Department of Economics, Towson University)

  • Juergen Jung

    (Department of Economics, Towson University)

Abstract
We quantify the importance of idiosyncratic health risk in a calibrated general-equilibrium model of Social Security. We construct an overlapping-generations model with rational-expectations households, idiosyncratic labor income and health risk, profit-maximizing firms, incomplete insurance markets, and a government that provides pensions and health insurance. We calibrate this model to the U.S. economy and perform two sets of computational experiments: (i) we decrease the size of Social Security, and (ii) we modify the progressivity of Social Security's benefit-earnings rule. We find that cutting Social Security's payroll tax in general equilibrium increases overall welfare, but by a lesser extent when health risk is present. When we modify the progressivity of Social Security's benefit-earnings rule, we find that a lump-sum benefit unrelated to past income increases overall welfare, but by a larger extent in the presence of health risk. A linear (fully proportional) benefit-earnings rule, on the other hand, reduces overall welfare, but also by a larger extent in the presence of health risk. Together, our results suggest that Social Security's implicit insurance is more valuable for low- and medium-income households when health risk is present in the model environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Shantanu Bagchi & Juergen Jung, 2020. "Health Risk and the Welfare Effects of Social Security," Working Papers 2020-02, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2020-02
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    File URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2020-02.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
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    Cited by:

    1. John Bailey Jones & Yue Li, 2023. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 320-344, April.
    2. John Bailey Jones & Yue Li, 2023. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 320-344, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health risk; Social Security; benefit-earnings rule; consumption smoothing; general equilibrium.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality

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