Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20170095.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contingent Convertibles: Can the Market Handle them?

Author

Listed:
  • Gera Kiewiet

    (DNB. The Netherlands)

  • Iman van Lelyveld

    (DNB, VU Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands)

  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

    (University of Amsterdam, CEPR, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands)

Abstract
The recent financial crisis has led to the introduction of contingent convertible instruments (CoCos) in the capital framework for banks. Although CoCos can provide benefits, such as automatic recapitalization of troubled banks, their inherent risks raise questions about whether they increase the safety of the banking system. We show that concerns about CoCos in just a single bank can result in the decline of an entire market, with investors apparently unable to distinguish safe from risky bonds. In times of market-panic, investors tend to rely on credit ratings instead of estimating the real risks of missing coupon payments. We provide several recommendations to improve the capital requirements regime for banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gera Kiewiet & Iman van Lelyveld & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2017. "Contingent Convertibles: Can the Market Handle them?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-095/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170095
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/17095.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N, 1995. "The Profit-Structure Relationship in Banking--Tests of Market-Power and Efficient-Structure Hypotheses," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 404-431, May.
    2. Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Kok, Christoffer & Perales, Cristian & van der Kraaij, Anton, 2018. "The systemic implications of bail-in: A multi-layered network approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 81-97.
    3. Grier, Paul & Katz, Steven, 1976. "The Differential Effects of Bond Rating Changes among Industrial and Public Utility Bonds by Maturity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 226-239, April.
    4. Kenneth R. French & Martin N. Baily & John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane & Douglas W. Diamond & Darrell Duffie & Anil K Kashyap & Frederic S. Mishkin & Raghuram G. Rajan & David S. Scharfstein & Robe, 2010. "The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9261.
    5. Jiménez, Gabriel & Lopez, Jose A. & Saurina, Jesús, 2013. "How does competition affect bank risk-taking?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 185-195.
    6. Frank Partnoy, 2009. "Overdependence on Credit Ratings was a Primary Cause of the Crisis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 12, pages 175-191, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Pasiouras, Fotios & Kosmidou, Kyriaki, 2007. "Factors influencing the profitability of domestic and foreign commercial banks in the European Union," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 222-237, June.
    8. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    9. Edward Simpson Prescott, 2012. "Contingent capital: the trigger problem," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 98(1Q), pages 33-50.
    10. Ahnert, Toni & Georg, Co-Pierre, 2018. "Information contagion and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 159-171.
    11. Gorton, Gary & Rosen, Richard, 1995. "Corporate Control, Portfolio Choice, and the Decline of Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1377-1420, December.
    12. Hilscher, Jens & Raviv, Alon, 2014. "Bank stability and market discipline: The effect of contingent capital on risk taking and default probability," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 542-560.
    13. Lev, Baruch, 1974. "On the Association between Operating Leverage and Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 627-641, September.
    14. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    16. Martijn A. Boermans & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2018. "Contingent convertible bonds: Who invests in European CoCos?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 234-238, February.
    17. Simon Kwan & Robert Eisenbeis, 1997. "Bank Risk, Capitalization, and Operating Efficiency," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 117-131, October.
    18. Stefan Avdjiev & Anastasia Kartasheva & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2013. "CoCos: a primer," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    19. Partnoy, Frank, 2009. "Overdependence on Credit Ratings Was a Primary Cause of the Crisis," Institutions and Markets Papers 50472, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    20. Charles W. Calomiris & Richard J. Herring, 2013. "How to Design a Contingent Convertible Debt Requirement That Helps Solve Our Too-Big-to-Fail Problem," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 25(2), pages 39-62, June.
    21. Beverly Hirtle & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Supervisory information and the frequency of bank examinations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Apr), pages 1-20.
    22. Suresh Sundaresan & Zhenyu Wang, 2015. "On the Design of Contingent Capital with a Market Trigger," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 881-920, April.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    24. Frank Partnoy, 2009. "Overdependence on Credit Ratings Was a Primary Cause of the Crisis," Working Papers 2009.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    25. Mark J. Flannery, 2014. "Contingent Capital Instruments for Large Financial Institutions: A Review of the Literature," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 225-240, December.
    26. Anat R. Admati & Peter M. DeMarzo & Martin F. Hellwig & Paul Pfleiderer, 2013. "Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital Regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Socially Expensive," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2013_23, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    27. repec:fip:fedreq:y:2012:i:1q:p:33-50:n:vol.98no.1 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Name 1 Dieter Wang Email 1 & Iman (I.P.P.) van Lelyveld & Julia (J.) Schaumburg, 2018. "Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-100/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Fiordelisi, Franco & Pennacchi, George & Ricci, Ornella, 2020. "Are contingent convertibles going-concern capital?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    3. Mike Derksen & Peter Spreij & Sweder Van Wijnbergen, 2022. "ACCOUNTING NOISE AND THE PRICING OF CoCos," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(07n08), pages 1-60, November.
    4. Philippe Oster, 2020. "Contingent Convertible bond literature review: making everything and nothing possible?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 343-381, December.
    5. Ioana Neamtu, 2020. "Multiple buffer CoCos and their impact on financial stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-010/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Name 1 Dieter Wang Email 1 & Iman (I.P.P.) van Lelyveld & Julia (J.) Schaumburg, 2018. "Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-100/IV, Tinbergen Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kiewiet, Gera & van Lelyveld, Iman Paul Pieter & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2017. "Contingent Convertibles: Can the Market handle them?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12359, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Philippe Oster, 2020. "Contingent Convertible bond literature review: making everything and nothing possible?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 343-381, December.
    3. Michael Sigmund & Kevin Zimmermann, 2021. "Determinants of Contingent Convertible Bond Coupon Rates of Banks: An Empirical Analysis (Michael Sigmund, Kevin Zimmermann)," Working Papers 236, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Goncharenko, Roman & Ongena, Steven & Rauf, Asad, 2021. "The agency of CoCos: Why contingent convertible bonds are not for everyone," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. Mark J. Flannery, 2016. "Stabilizing Large Financial Institutions with Contingent Capital Certificates," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-26, June.
    6. Hesse, Henning, 2018. "Incentive effects from write-down CoCo bonds: An empirical analysis," SAFE Working Paper Series 212, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young, 2021. "On the preferences of CoCo bond buyers and sellers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Berg, Tobias & Kaserer, Christoph, 2015. "Does contingent capital induce excessive risk-taking?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 356-385.
    9. Lorenzo Sasso, 2016. "Bank Capital Structure and Financial Innovation: Antagonists or Two Sides of the Same Coin?," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 225-263.
    10. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2015. "The Case for Contingent Convertible Debt for Sovereignst," Working Papers 15-13, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    11. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2018. "Contingent Convertible Bonds for Sovereign Debt Risk Management," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, June.
    12. Pierluigi Bologna & Arianna Miglietta & Anatoli Segura, 2020. "Contagion in the CoCos Market? A Case Study of Two Stress Events," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 137-184, December.
    13. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Kenjiro Hori & Jorge Martin Cerón, 2017. "Contingent Convertible Bonds: Payoff Structures and Incentive Effects," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1711, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    15. Fatouh, Mahmoud & McMunn, Ayowande, 2019. "Shareholder risk-taking incentives in the presence of contingent capital," Bank of England working papers 775, Bank of England.
    16. Kanga, Désiré & Murinde, Victor & Soumaré, Issouf, 2020. "Capital, risk and profitability of WAEMU banks: Does bank ownership matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Viral V. Acharya & Hanh T. Le & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Bank Capital and Dividend Externalities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 988-1018.
    18. Avdjiev, Stefan & Bogdanova, Bilyana & Bolton, Patrick & Jiang, Wei & Kartasheva, Anastasia, 2020. "CoCo issuance and bank fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 593-613.
    19. Anat Admati, 2014. "The Compelling Case for Stronger and More Effective Leverage Regulation in Banking," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(71), pages 7-38, December.
    20. Tao Wang, 2016. "Time-Varying Rating Standards and the Distorted Incentives of Credit Rating Agencies," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 21-39.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Contingent Convertible Capital; Systemic Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170095. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.