Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tky/fseres/2005cf375.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Bank of Japan's Struggle with the Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Exercises in Expectations Management

Author

Listed:
  • Kazuo Ueda

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract
This paper reviews and evaluates the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s monetary policy during the period 1998-2005. In doing so, it pays particular attention to the development of academic thinking on what central banks can do at or near zero interest rates and its relationship with the actual policy measures adopted by the BOJ. The paper argues that the BOJ has done most of the things recommended by academic economists. The most important of these is expectations management as crystallized in the so-called zero interest rate policy. The academic origin of this policy can be found in the seminal work of Krugman. The paper points out, however, that this fact, unfortunately, remained unnoticed by many, and explores reasons behind. The paper then goes on to survey the empirical literature on the effects of the measures adopted by the BOJ. The literature has found that the zero interest rate policy has had significant effects on the term structure of interest rates and supported the economy. Finally, the paper discusses possible reasons for the failure of such measures to stop the deflation of the economy within a short period of time. It points out some difficulties inherent in the expectations management approach and problems created by the impaired financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuo Ueda, 2005. "The Bank of Japan's Struggle with the Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Exercises in Expectations Management," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-375, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2005cf375
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2005/2005cf375.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 110-137, March.
    2. Naohiko Baba & Motoharu Nakashima & Yosuke Shigemi & Kazuo Ueda, 2006. "The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Premiums in the Money Market," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    3. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
    4. Mahadeva,Lavan & Sinclair,Peter (ed.), 2002. "Monetary Transmission in Diverse Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521813464, October.
    5. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    6. Nobuyuki Oda & Kazuo Ueda, 2007. "The Effects Of The Bank Of Japan'S Zero Interest Rate Commitment And Quantitative Monetary Easing On The Yield Curve: A Macro‐Finance Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 303-328, September.
    7. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    8. Nobuyuki Oda & Takashi Nagahata, 2005. "On the Function of the Zero Interest Rate Commitment: Monetary Policy Rules in the Presence of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    11. Takashi Nagahata & Toshitaka Sekine, 2002. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Firm Investment after the Collapse of the Asset Price Bubble: An Investigation Using Japanese Micro Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mahito Uchida, 2014. "Towards the end of deflation in Japan ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03627437, HAL.
    2. Robert Amano & Malik Shukayev, 2012. "Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1475-1505, December.
    3. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2010. "Size and Composition of the Central Bank Balance Sheet: Revisiting Japan's Experience of the Quantitative Easing Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 79-106, November.
    4. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "The Effectiveness Of Non‐Traditional Monetary Policy Measures: The Case Of The Bank Of Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 1-22, March.
    5. Ábel, István & Mérő, Katalin, 2024. "A bankszabályozás lehetőségei és korlátai az endogén pénzelmélet keretében. A bankok puha költségvetési korlátja [Possibilities and limits of banking regulation in the endogenous money theory frame," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 604-623.
    6. Bagus, Philipp & Howden, David, 2016. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Analysis," MPRA Paper 79801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    8. Thomas F. Cargill & Federico Guerrero, 2007. "Japan's Deflation: A Time‐Inconsistent Policy in Need of an Inflation Target," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 115-130, July.
    9. Kazuo Ueda, 2007. "Trying to Make Sense of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy sinse the Exit from Quantitative Easing ( Published in "International Finance", Winter 2007, Vol. 10, No.3, 301-16. )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-114, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    10. Kazuo Ueda, 2007. "Trying to Make Sense of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy since the Exit from Quantitative Easing," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-316, December.
    11. Roger J. Sandilands, 2010. "Hawtreyan ‘Credit Deadlock’ or Keynesian ‘Liquidity Trap’? Lessons for Japan from the Great Depression," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Robert Leeson (ed.), David Laidler’s Contributions to Economics, chapter 15, pages 335-371, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7fp8n6moep83p9otmhc28tapl4 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mahito Uchida, 2014. "Towards the end of deflation in Japan ?," Post-Print hal-03627437, HAL.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7fp8n6moep83p9otmhc28tapl4 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Beechey, Meredith & Hjalmarsson, Erik & sterholm, Pr, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 934-943, May.
    16. Naohiko Baba, 2006. "Financial Market Functioning and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 39-71, December.
    17. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2019. "Government Bond Yields At The Effective Lower Bound: International Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 102-120, January.
    18. Kazuo Ueda, 2009. "Non-Traditional Monetary Polices: G7 Central Banks during 2007-2009 and the Bank of Japan during 1998-2006," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-692, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Peter J. Morgan, 2012. "The Role and Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Hiroshi Ugai, 2006. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    4. Kazuo Ueda, 2005. "The Bank of Japan's Struggle with the Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Exercises in Expectations Management (subsequently published in "International Finance", Summer 2005, Vol. 8," CARF F-Series CARF-F-049, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Oda, Nobuyuki & Nagahata, Takashi, 2008. "On the function of the zero interest rate commitment: Monetary policy rules in the presence of the zero lower bound on interest rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 34-67, March.
    6. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2010. "Size and Composition of the Central Bank Balance Sheet: Revisiting Japan's Experience of the Quantitative Easing Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 79-106, November.
    7. Kobayashi, Takeshi & Spiegel, Mark M. & Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 2006. "Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 699-721, December.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    9. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2005. "A Tax Rebate in A Recession: Is It Safe and Effective?," Working Papers 05-20, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    10. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    11. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Optimal Inflation for the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-52, July.
    12. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    13. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2005. " Can Fiscal Stimulus Overcome the Zero Interest-Rate Bound?: A Quantitative Assessment," Working Papers 05-19, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    14. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Quantitative and credit easing policies at the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate," MPRA Paper 28129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. McGough, Bruce & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2005. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 855-879, July.
    16. Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, February.
    17. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2008. "Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 751-760.
    18. Kunihiro Hanabusa, 2018. "Policy announcement and credit risk: zero interest rate policy and quantitative monetary easing policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 201-210.
    19. John C. Williams, 2020. "The Research–Policy Nexus: ZLB, JMCB, and FOMC," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 601-605, December.
    20. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "On Lower-bound Traps: A Framework for the Analysis of Monetary Policy in the ÒAgeÓ of Central Banks," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_478, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2005cf375. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CIRJE administrative office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ritokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.