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How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage

Author

Listed:
  • Leandro De Magalhaes

    (University of Bristol)

  • Dominik Hangartner

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Salomo Hirvonen

    (University of Bristol)

  • Jaakko Meriläinen

    (ITAM)

  • Nelson A. Ruiz

    (University of Oxford
    University of Turku)

Abstract
Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used in the social sciences to estimate causal effects from observational data. Scholars can choose from a range of methods that implement different RDD estimators, but there is a paucity of research on the performance of these different estimators in recovering experimental benchmarks. Leveraging exact ties in local elections in Colombia and Finland, which are resolved by random coin toss, we find that RDD estimation using bias-correction and robust inference (CCT) performs better in replicating experimental estimates of the individual incumbency advantage than local linear regression with conventional inference (LLR). We assess the generalizability of our results by estimating incumbency effects across different subsamples, and in other countries. We find that CCT consistently comes closer to the experimental benchmark, produces smaller estimates than LLR, and that incumbency effects are highly heterogeneous, both in magnitude and sign, across countries with similar open-list PR systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro De Magalhaes & Dominik Hangartner & Salomo Hirvonen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Nelson A. Ruiz, 2020. "How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage," Discussion Papers 135, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp135
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    File URL: http://ace-economics.fi/kuvat/dp135.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leandro de Magalhaes & Salomo Hirvonen, 2019. "The Incumbent-Challenger Advantage and the Winner-Runner-up Advantage," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/710, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Santosh Anagol & Thomas Fujiwara, 2016. "The Runner-Up Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 927-991.
    3. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell, 2018. "On the Effect of Bias Estimation on Coverage Accuracy in Nonparametric Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 767-779, April.
    4. King, Gary, 1991. "Constituency Service and Incumbency Advantage," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 119-128, January.
    5. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    6. Fowler, Anthony & Hall, Andrew B., 2014. "Disentangling the Personal and Partisan Incumbency Advantages: Evidence from Close Elections and Term Limits," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 9(4), pages 501-531, December.
    7. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik, 2022. "Regression Discontinuity Designs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 821-851, August.
    2. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    3. Jaakko Meriläinen & Janne Tukiainen, 2021. "The Advantage of Incumbents in Coalitional Bargaining," Discussion Papers 137, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    4. Guastavino, Carlos & Miranda, Alvaro & Montero, Rodrigo, 2021. "Rank effect in bureaucrat recruitment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Close elections; personal incumbency advantage; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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