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Intrinsic persistence of wage inflation in New Keynesian models of the business cycles

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  • Di Bartolomeo Giovanni
  • Di Pietro Marco
Abstract
Our paper derives and estimates a New Keynesian wage Phillips curve that accounts for intrinsic inertia. Our approach considers a wage-setting model featuring an upward-sloping hazard function, that is based on the notion that the probability of resetting a wage depends on the time elapsed since the last reset. According to our specification, we obtain a wage Phillips curve that also includes backward-looking terms, which account for persistence. We test the slope of the hazard function using GMM estimation. Then, placing our equation in a small-scale New Keynesian model, we investigate its dynamic properties using Bayesian estimation. Model comparison shows that our model outperforms commonly used alternative methods to introduce persistence.
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Suggested Citation

  • Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Di Pietro Marco, 2015. "Intrinsic persistence of wage inflation in New Keynesian models of the business cycles," wp.comunite 0118, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:0118
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    Cited by:

    1. DI BARTOLOMEO, Giovanni & SERPIERI, Carolina, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy and the vintage-dependent price and wage Phillips curves: An international comparison," Working Papers 2023004, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    2. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    3. Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Carolina Serpieri, 2020. "Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations: Euler versus anticipated-utility approach," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 249-273, August.
    4. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Serpieri, Carolina, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy and the time-dependent price and wage Phillips curves: An international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco, 2018. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rule Under Positive Hazard Functions For Price Changes," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 135-152, January.
    6. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Beqiraj, Elton, 2020. "Price and wage inflation persistence across countries and monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: DSGE‐VAR approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 715-729, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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