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Spatial Distribution of Key Macroeconomic Growth Indicators in the EU-27: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

In: The Labour Market Impact of the EU Enlargement

Author

Listed:
  • Lucian-Liviu Albu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Casa Academiei Romane)

  • John M. Polimeni
  • Raluca I. Iorgulescu
Abstract
Convergence, both nominal and real, is occurring in the EU, especially for new members. Among the macroeconomic variables and correlations closely related to the convergence process are inflation, per capita GDP, the natural rate of unemployment and the inflation-unemployment relationship. This study concentrates on empirical analyses of the spatial distribution of these macroeconomic variables for the EU-27. Moreover, taking into account that the current level of productivity is implicitly influenced by the current unemployment rate, a simple estimate for “pure” productivity is proposed as a solution. Pure productivity must be neutral to short-run changes in employment, but in the long run it is affected by factors including general technological progress, rising education levels, growth of the R&D system and the expansion of the “new economy”. The estimated changes in the pure productivity level are compared to the dynamics of the natural rate of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucian-Liviu Albu & John M. Polimeni & Raluca I. Iorgulescu, 2010. "Spatial Distribution of Key Macroeconomic Growth Indicators in the EU-27: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," AIEL Series in Labour Economics, in: Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Francesco Pastore (ed.), The Labour Market Impact of the EU Enlargement, pages 175-194, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:aiechp:978-3-7908-2164-2_7
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7908-2164-2_7
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    Keywords

    Contour plot; Natural rate of unemployment; Smoothing filters; Spatial distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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