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Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29

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  • John G. Fernald
Abstract
U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed after the early- to mid-2000s in aggregate, industry, and regional data. The broad-based nature of the slowdown, and its timing, rules out simple stories related to housing and finance before the recession, or to effects of the recession itself, but is consistent with some models of the effects of information technology. A calibrated growth model suggests trend productivity growth is only slightly faster than its 1973-1995 pace. One implication is that about ¾ of the shortfall of actual output from pre-recession estimates of trend reflects a reduction in the level of potential.
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  • John G. Fernald, 2014. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 1-51, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13407
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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