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Conflict in times of COVID-19

In: COVID-19 in Developing Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman

    (Aix-Marseille School of Economics and CEPR)

  • Mathieu Couttenier

    (Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon and CEPR)

  • Nathalie Monnet

    (Graduate Institute, Geneva)

  • Rohit Ticku

    (Chapman University)

Abstract
This chapter discusses the potential impacts of the spread of COVID-19, and the restriction policies that it has triggered in many countries, on conflict incidence worldwide. Based on anecdotal evidence and recent research, we argue that imposing nation-wide shutdown policies diminishes conflict incidence on average, but that this conflict reduction may be short-lived and highly heterogeneous across countries. In particular, conflict does not appear to decline in poor, fractionalised countries. Evidence points to two potential ways in which COVID-related restriction policies may increase conflict: losses in income and magnified ethnic and religious tensions leading to scapegoating of minorities.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Nathalie Monnet & Rohit Ticku, 2020. "Conflict in times of COVID-19," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Simeon Djankov & Ugo Panizza (ed.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 147-156, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ebchap:p330-09
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    1. Daniel Hamermesh, 2020. "Ageing and productivity: Economists and others," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Sebastian Galliani & Ugo Panizza (ed.), Publishing and Measuring Success in Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 73-76, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
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    4. Patrick Bolton & Lee Buchheit & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mitu Gulati & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Ugo Panizza & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2020. "A debt standstill for developing and emerging market countries," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Simeon Djankov & Ugo Panizza (ed.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 317-328, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. World Bank, 2019. "World Development Report 2019 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2019]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30435.
    6. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Debrun, Xavier & Willems, Tim & Wyplosz, Charles, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Cynthia Balloch & Simeon Djankov & Juanita Gonzalez-Uribe & Dimitri Vayanos, 2020. "A restart procedure to deal with COVID-19," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Simeon Djankov & Ugo Panizza (ed.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 266-276, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. World Bank, 2020. "Response to COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33738, The World Bank Group.
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    1. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Monnet, Nathalie & Ticku, Rohit, 2022. "Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 240-255.

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