Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sjobre/v52y2000i1d10.1007_bf03372607.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinanten erwarteter Renditen am deutschen Aktienmarkt — Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand ausgewählter Kennzahlen

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Wallmeier

    (Universität Augsburg)

Abstract
Summary The paper explores the cross-sectional determinants of stock returns in Germany, using the following variables: beta, earnings yield, cash flow yield, financial leverage, size, and book-to-market equity. Various statistical specifications are applied to a comprehensive data set that extends from 1967 to 1994. The findings reveal a significant relation between expected returns and the two variables cash flow yield and book-to-market equity. The impact of size appears to be less pronounced. In general, the portion of the explained variation in average stock returns is rather small. The results bear a striking resemblance to the evidence on the cross-section of expected stock returns accumulated in some other European countries and especially the U.S. and Japan. Some findings point to market overreaction causing the dependencies, whereas we do not find evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the fundamental variables proxy for omitted risk factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Wallmeier, 2000. "Determinanten erwarteter Renditen am deutschen Aktienmarkt — Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand ausgewählter Kennzahlen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 27-57, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:52:y:2000:i:1:d:10.1007_bf03372607
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03372607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF03372607
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF03372607?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    5. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1983. "Factor pricing in a finite economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 497-507, December.
    6. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. "Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-1764, December.
    7. Chen, Nai-fu & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr, 1983. "Exact Pricing in Linear Factor Models with Finitely Many Assets: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 985-988, June.
    8. Dybvig, Philip H., 1983. "An explicit bound on individual assets' deviations from APT pricing in a finite economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 483-496, December.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:309-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    11. Loughran, Tim, 1997. "Book-to-Market across Firm Size, Exchange, and Seasonality: Is There an Effect?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 249-268, September.
    12. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1992. "Does Market Risk Really Explain the Size Effect?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 337-351, September.
    13. Banz, Rolf W & Breen, William J, 1986. "Sample-Dependent Results Using Accounting and Market Data: Some Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 779-793, September.
    14. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    16. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-467.
    17. Barr Rosenberg and Vinay Marathe., 1976. "Common Factors in Security Returns: Microeconomic Determinants and Macroeconomic Correlates," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 44, University of California at Berkeley.
    18. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    19. La Porta, Rafael, et al, 1997. "Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 859-874, June.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    21. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. "An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December.
    22. S. P. Kothari & Jay Shanken, 1995. "In Defense Of Beta," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(1), pages 53-59, March.
    23. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    24. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    25. Schiereck, D. & Weber, M., 1995. "Zyklische und antizyklische Handelsstrategien am deutschen Aktienmarkt," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35478, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    26. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July.
    27. Lehmann, Bruce N., 1990. "Residual risk revisited," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 71-97.
    28. Davis, James L, 1994. "The Cross-Section of Realized Stock Returns: The Pre-COMPUSTAT Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1579-1593, December.
    29. Knez, Peter J & Ready, Mark J, 1997. "On the Robustness of Size and Book-to-Market in Cross-Sectional Regressions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1355-1382, September.
    30. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    31. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    32. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    33. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-46, March.
    34. Chan, K. C. & Chen, Nai-fu & Hsieh, David A., 1985. "An exploratory investigation of the firm size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 451-471, September.
    35. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    36. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:135-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "The CAPM Is Wanted, Dead or Alive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1947-1958, December.
    38. Rosenberg, Barr, 1974. "Extra-Market Components of Covariance in Security Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 263-274, March.
    39. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. "Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-1742, December.
    40. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1992. "Empirical Testing of Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 4043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-455, July.
    42. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    43. Kothari, S P & Shanken, Jay & Sloan, Richard G, 1995. "Another Look at the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 185-224, March.
    44. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Ziegler & Michael Schröder & Anja Schulz & Richard Stehle, 2007. "Multifaktormodelle zur Erklärung deutscher Aktienrenditen: Eine empirische Analyse," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 355-389, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    2. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
    3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    4. M. Eskandar Shah & Sourafel Girm & R. Hudson, 2012. "Rationalizing the Value Premium under Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market," Working Papers 12010, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    5. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    6. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, February.
    7. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    8. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    9. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    10. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    11. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Estrategias Cuantitativas De Valor Y Retornos Por Accion De Largo," Finance 0503029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1969-1996 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Girma, Sourafel & Shah, M. Eskandar & Williams, Jonathan, 2014. "Rationalizing the value premium in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 51-70.
    15. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    16. Christian Walkshäusl & Sebastian Lobe, 2014. "The Alternative Three†Factor Model: An Alternative beyond US Markets?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(1), pages 33-70, January.
    17. George Leledakis & Ian Davidson & George Karathanassis, 2003. "Cross-sectional estimation of stock returns in small markets: The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 413-426.
    18. Anderson, James H. & Korsun, Georges & Murrell, Peter, 2003. "Glamour and value in the land of Chingis Khan," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 34-57, March.
    19. Wang, Yuenan & Di Iorio, Amalia, 2007. "The cross section of expected stock returns in the Chinese A-share market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 335-349, March.
    20. Sheu, Her-Jiun & Wu, Soushan & Ku, Kuang-Ping, 1998. "Cross-sectional relationships between stock returns and market beta, trading volume, and sales-to-price in Taiwan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18.
    21. Kwame Addae-Dapaah & James Webb & Kim Ho & Yan Tan, 2010. "Industrial Real Estate Investment: Does the Contrarian Strategy Work?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 193-227, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:52:y:2000:i:1:d:10.1007_bf03372607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.