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Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model

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  • Michael Wegener
  • Frank Westerhoff
Abstract
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Suggested Citation

  • Michael Wegener & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 251-273, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:22:y:2012:i:2:p:251-273
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-010-0215-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
    5. Westerhoff Frank H. & Reitz Stefan, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
    6. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    7. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    9. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
    10. Oded Galor, 2007. "Discrete Dynamical Systems," Springer Books, Springer, edition 1, number 978-3-540-36776-5, July.
    11. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
    12. Kind, Christoph, 1999. "Remarks on the economic interpretation of Hopf bifurcations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 147-154, February.
    13. Franke, Reiner, 1996. "A Metzlerian model of inventory growth cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 243-262, June.
    14. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Dynamics of beliefs and learning under aL-processes -- the heterogeneous case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 503-531, January.
    15. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    16. Agliari, Anna, 2006. "Homoclinic connections and subcritical Neimark bifurcation in a duopoly model with adaptively adjusted productions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 739-755.
    17. Agliari, Anna & Gardini, Laura & Puu, Tönu, 2005. "Some global bifurcations related to the appearance of closed invariant curves," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 201-219.
    18. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    19. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
    21. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    22. Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank & Zaklan, Georg, 2009. "A Metzlerian business cycle model with nonlinear heterogeneous expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 715-720, May.
    23. Goldbaum, David & Mizrach, Bruce, 2008. "Estimating the intensity of choice in a dynamic mutual fund allocation decision," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3866-3876, December.
    24. Michael Neugart & Jan Tuinstra, 2003. "Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 29-51, February.
    25. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
    26. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    27. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    28. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O.O., 2008. "Bifurcation routes to volatility clustering under evolutionary learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 27-47, July.
    29. Matsumoto, Akio, 1998. "Non-linear structure of a Metzlerian inventory cycle model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 481-492, January.
    30. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    31. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
    32. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    33. repec:bla:scandj:v:95:y:1993:i:3:p:355-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
    35. Hohnisch, Martin & Westerhoff, Frank, 2008. "Business cycle synchronization in a simple Keynesian macro-model with socially transmitted economic sentiment and international sentiment spill-over," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 249-259, September.
    36. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2006. "Business Cycles, Heuristic Expectation Formation, and Contracyclical Policies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 8(5), pages 821-838, December.
    37. De Grauwe, Paul, 2008. "DSGE-Modelling: when agents are imperfectly informed," Working Paper Series 897, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, October.
    2. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2013. "Dynamics in a nonlinear Keynesian good market model," Working Papers 254, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2013.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Inventory adjustment; Heterogeneous expectations; Learning behaviour; Nonlinear dynamics; D84; E12; E32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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