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Yield spreads on EMU government bonds — How the financial crisis has helped investors to rediscover risk

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  • Catharina Klepsch
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
Abstract
This study analyses the determinants of EMU member states’ government bond yield spreads from January 2000 until September 2010. Using a dynamic panel regression approach, the authors show that before the outbreak of the fi nancial crisis investors generally ignored fundamental sovereign bond risk factors. However, with the beginning of the fi nancial crisis yield spreads for many member countries escalated. The results indicate not only that investors began to re-evaluate countries’ credit risks (measured by projections of debt-to- GDP ratios), but also that risk aversion in the markets, which increased signifi cantly during the crisis, became a major determinant of sovereign bond spreads.
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  • Catharina Klepsch & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds — How the financial crisis has helped investors to rediscover risk," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 46(3), pages 169-176, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:intere:v:46:y:2011:i:3:p:169-176
    DOI: 10.1007/s10272-011-0379-2
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    1. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    3. Boris T. Petkov, 2017. "Excessive Debt or Excess Savings -- Transition Countries Sovereign Bond Spread Assessment," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 91-119, March.
    4. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2021. "Does Public Debt Ownership Structure Matter for a Borrowing Country?," Working Papers REM 2021/0190, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Elzbieta Szulc & Karolina Gorna & Dagna Wleklinska, 2016. "The share of European economies in the process of convergence of long-term interest rates in the EU in the period of 2006–2016," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 16, pages 165-187.
    6. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2017. "Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Faruk Balli & Hassan Ghassan & Essam H. Jeefri, 2021. "Sukuk and bond spreads," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(3), pages 529-543, July.
      • Balli, Faruk & Ghassan, Hassan B. & Al-Jefri, Essam H., 2020. "Sukuk and bond spreads," MPRA Paper 106729, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jan 2021.
    8. Eichler, Stefan & Maltritz, Dominik, 2013. "The term structure of sovereign default risk in EMU member countries and its determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1810-1816.
    9. Carla Fernandes & Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete Vieira, 2016. "Does local and Euro area sentiment matter for sovereign debt markets? Evidence from a bailout country," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 816-834, February.
    10. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.

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