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Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future

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  • John Fernald
  • Robert Inklaar
Abstract
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United States, there is some macroeconomic evidence for some northern European countries that the GFC had a further adverse impact on TFP growth. Still, the challenges for economic policy look surprisingly similar to the ones discussed prior to the Great Recession, even if the policy implications seem less clear.

Suggested Citation

  • John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2020. "Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 38, pages 104-135, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:38:y:2020:5
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    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/ipm/38/Fernald.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    2. Herzer, Dierk, 2022. "The impact of domestic and foreign R&D on TFP in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Lee, Byoungchan, 2023. "Wealth Inequality and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 132-148.
    4. DUERNECKER Georg & SANCHEZ MARTINEZ Miguel, 2021. "Structural change and productivity growth in the European Union: Past, present and future," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-09, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Bart van Ark, 2021. "Putting Together the Pieces of the Productivity Puzzle: Review Article of Productivity Perspectives and Productivity and the Pandemic," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 40, pages 118-133, Spring.
    6. Comin, Diego & Quintana Gonzalez, Javier & Schmitz, Tom & Trigari, Antonella, 2020. "Revisiting Productivity Dynamics in Europe: A New Measure of Utilization-Adjusted TFP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity Growth; Trends; Forecasting; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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