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The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriela Calderón
  • Gustavo Robles
  • Alberto Díaz-Cayeros
  • Beatriz Magaloni
Abstract
In 2006, the Mexican government launched an aggressive campaign to weaken drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs). The security policies differed significantly from those of previous administrations in the use of a leadership strategy (the targeting for arrest of the highest levels or core leadership of criminal networks). While these strategies can play an important role in disrupting the targeted criminal organization, they can also have unintended consequences, increasing inter-cartel and intra-cartel fighting and fragmenting criminal organizations. What impact do captures of senior drug cartel members have on the dynamics of drug-related violence? Does it matter if governments target drug kingpins versus lower-ranked lieutenants? We analyze whether the captures or killings of kingpins and lieutenants have increased drug-related violence and whether the violence spills over spatially. To estimate effects that are credibly causal, we use different empirical strategies that combine difference-in-differences and synthetic control group methods. We find evidence that captures or killings of drug cartel leaders have exacerbating effects not only on DTO-related violence but also on homicides that affect the general population. Captures or killings of lieutenants, for their part, only seem to exacerbate violence in “strategic places†or municipalities located in the transportation network. While most of the effects on DTO-related violence are found in the first six months after a leader’s removal, effects on homicides affecting the rest of the population are more enduring, suggesting different mechanisms through which leadership neutralizations breed violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriela Calderón & Gustavo Robles & Alberto Díaz-Cayeros & Beatriz Magaloni, 2015. "The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(8), pages 1455-1485, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:59:y:2015:i:8:p:1455-1485
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lindo, Jason M. & Padilla-Romo, María, 2018. "Kingpin approaches to fighting crime and community violence: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 253-268.
    2. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Daniel Mejía, 2023. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 344-358, March.
    3. Juan Camilo Castillo & Daniel Mejía & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 269-286, May.
    4. Giacomo Battiston & Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie & Paolo Pinotti, 2022. "Fueling Organized Crime: The Mexican War on Drugs and Oil Thefts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0286, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    5. Germà Bel & Maximilian Holst, 2018. "Assessing the effects of the Mexican Drug War on economic growth: An empirical analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 276-303, July.
    6. Aryana Soliz, 2021. "Creating Sustainable Cities through Cycling Infrastructure? Learning from Insurgent Mobilities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Tealde, Emiliano, 2019. "The impact of police presence on drug-trade-related violence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123332, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Herrera, Joel Salvador & Martinez-Alvarez, Cesar B., 2022. "Diversifying violence: Mining, export-agriculture, and criminal governance in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Luisa Blanco & Robin Grier & Kevin Grier & Daniel Hicks, 2021. "Household responses to escalating violence in Mexico," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 315-318, February.
    10. Nicolas Ajzenman & Sebastian Galiani & Enrique Seira, 2015. "On the Distributive Costs of Drug-Related Homicides," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4).
    11. Kirssa Cline Ryckman, 2020. "Lasting peace or temporary calm? Rebel group decapitation and civil war outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 172-192, March.
    12. López Cruz, Iván & Torrens, Gustavo, 2023. "Hidden drivers of violence diffusion: Evidence from illegal oil siphoning in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 26-70.
    13. Ceren Baysan & Marshall Burke & Felipe González & Solomon Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Economic and Non-Economic Factors in Violence: Evidence from Organized Crime, Suicides and Climate in Mexico," NBER Working Papers 24897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Michael Clemens, Çaglar Özden, and Hillel Rapoport, 2014. "Migration and Development Research Is Moving Far beyond Remittances - Working Paper 365," Working Papers 365, Center for Global Development.
    15. Baysan, Ceren & Burke, Marshall & González, Felipe & Hsiang, Solomon & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 434-452.
    16. Jarillo, Brenda & Magaloni, Beatriz & Franco, Edgar & Robles, Gustavo, 2016. "How the Mexican drug war affects kids and schools? Evidence on effects and mechanisms," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 135-146.
    17. Padilla-Romo, María & Peluffo, Cecilia, 2023. "Violence-induced migration and peer effects in academic performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    18. Golz, Michael & D'Amico, Daniel J., 2018. "Market concentration in the international drug trade," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 28-42.
    19. Nicholas Ajzenman, Sebastian Galiani, and Enrique Seira, 2014. "On the Distributed Costs of Drug-Related Homicides - Working Paper 364," Working Papers 364, Center for Global Development.
    20. Balmori de la Miyar Jose Roberto, 2016. "The Economic Consequences of the Mexican Drug War," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 213-246, August.
    21. Daniele, Gianmarco & Le Moglie, Marco & Masera, Federico, 2023. "Pains, guns and moves: The effect of the U.S. opioid epidemic on Mexican migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    22. Eva Olimpia Arceo Gomez, 2022. "Costo economico de la impunidad," Sobre México. Revista de Economía, Sobre México. Temas en economía, vol. 3(5), pages 5-41.
    23. Trudeau, Jessie, 2022. "Limiting aggressive policing can reduce police and civilian violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

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