Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ausman/v41y2016i1p55-76.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Co-existence of short-term reversals and momentum in the Australian equity market

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Chai
  • Binh Do
Abstract
Small stocks tend to reverse, whereas large stocks tend to trend over a one-month horizon, which explains the lack of short-term reversals in the Australian market as a whole. However, large stocks exhibit intra-industry reversals, in which industry winners underperform industry losers in the subsequent month, when controlling for price momentum. Conversely, once this intra-industry reversal is neutralised, large stocks display momentum behaviour, in which market winners outperform market losers. These conditional strategies generate positive, significant risk-adjusted returns on large stocks in Australia. This paper documents significant industry momentum, as winning industries outperform losing industries in the following month. This industry momentum effect dominates the intra-industry reversal. The paper also finds evidence that conditional reversals are driven by illiquidity and are inhibited by stock prices under-reacting to earnings announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Chai & Binh Do, 2016. "Co-existence of short-term reversals and momentum in the Australian equity market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 55-76, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:41:y:2016:i:1:p:55-76
    DOI: 10.1177/0312896214535789
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0312896214535789
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0312896214535789?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brailsford, Tim & Gaunt, Clive & O'Brien, Michael A., 2012. "The investment value of the value premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 416-437.
    2. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Brown, Philip & Keim, Donald B. & Kleidon, Allan W. & Marsh, Terry A., 1983. "Stock return seasonalities and the tax-loss selling hypothesis : Analysis of the arguments and Australian evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 105-127, June.
    5. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    6. Lo, Kevin & Coggins, Richard, 2006. "Effects of order flow imbalance on short-horizon contrarian strategies in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 291-310, June.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2145-2176 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Andy C.W. Chui & Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei, 2010. "Individualism and Momentum around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 361-392, February.
    9. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    10. Paul Y Dou & David R Gallagher & David H Schneider, 2013. "Dissecting anomalies in the Australian stock market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 353-373, August.
    11. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    12. Lee, Darren D. & Chan, Howard & Faff, Robert W. & Kalev, Petko S., 2003. "Short-term contrarian investing--is it profitable? ... Yes and No," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 385-404, December.
    13. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "Liquidity and Autocorrelations in Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2365-2394, October.
    14. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    15. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1995. "Overreaction, Delayed Reaction, and Contrarian Profits," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 973-993.
    16. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    18. Stan Hurn & Vlad Pavlov, 2003. "Momentum in Australian Stock Returns," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 28(2), pages 141-155, September.
    19. Michael A. O’Brien & Tim Brailsford & Clive Gaunt, 2010. "Interaction of size, book‐to‐market and momentum effects in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(1), pages 197-219, March.
    20. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    21. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1039-1082 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
    24. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    25. Demir, Isabelle & Muthuswamy, Jay & Walter, Terry, 2004. "Momentum returns in Australian equities: The influences of size, risk, liquidity and return computation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 143-158, April.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    27. A. S. Hurn & V.Pavlov, 2008. "Momentum in Australian Stock Returns: An Update," NCER Working Paper Series 23, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 26 Feb 2008.
    28. Robert B. Durand & Manapon Limkriangkrai & Gary Smith, 2006. "Momentum in Australia—A Note," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(2), pages 355-364, December.
    29. Ben Marshall & Rachael Cahan, 2005. "Is the 52-week high momentum strategy profitable outside the US?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(18), pages 1259-1267.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mardy Chiah & Daniel Chai & Angel Zhong & Song Li, 2016. "A Better Model? An Empirical Investigation of the Fama–French Five-factor Model in Australia," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 595-638, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Qiang & Liu, Ming & Liu, Qianqiu, 2015. "Momentum is really short-term momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-182.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    3. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    4. Hurst, Gareth & Docherty, Paul, 2015. "Trend salience, investor behaviours and momentum profitability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 471-484.
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Pham, Nga, 2021. "False discoveries in the anomaly research: New insights from the Stock Exchange of Melbourne (1927–1987)," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Daniel Chai & Manapon Limkriangkrai & Philip Inyeob Ji, 2017. "Momentum in weekly returns: the role of intermediate-horizon past performance," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 45-68, April.
    7. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    8. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    9. Zhong, Angel & Gray, Philip, 2016. "The MAX effect: An exploration of risk and mispricing explanations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 76-90.
    10. Heston, Steven L. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 418-445, February.
    11. Minh Phuong Doan & Vitali Alexeev & Robert Brooks, 2016. "Concurrent momentum and contrarian strategies in the Australian stock market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 77-106, February.
    12. Thanh D Huynh & Daniel R Smith, 2017. "Delisted stocks and momentum: Evidence from a new Australian dataset," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 140-160, February.
    13. Chou, Pin-Huang & Wei, K.C. John & Chung, Huimin, 2007. "Sources of contrarian profits in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 261-286, June.
    14. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    15. Chae, Joon & Kim, Ryumi, 2020. "Contrarian profits of the firm-specific component on stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    16. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    17. Theissen, Erik & Yilanci, Can, 2020. "Momentum? What Momentum?," CFR Working Papers 20-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    18. Jenni L. Bettman & Stephen J. Sault & Anna H. von Reibnitz, 2010. "The impact of liquidity and transaction costs on the 52-week high momentum strategy in Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 35(3), pages 227-244, December.
    19. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    20. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Liquidity and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industry momentum; liquidity; momentum; short-term reversals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:41:y:2016:i:1:p:55-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.agsm.edu.au .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.