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Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?

Author

Listed:
  • Yan, Ho-don

    (Feng Chia University)

  • Yang, Cheng-lang

    (Feng Chia University)

Abstract
The ongoing financial globalization has instigated growing concerns on the issue of benefits and costs from free international capital mobility. Past experiences in the emerging market countries indicate that foreign capital inflows could cause persistent current account deficits and lead to currency crises. This paper empirically demonstrates that foreign capital inflows and current account imbalances interact in different ways between developed countries and emerging market countries. Using the Granger non-causality test, we find that foreign capital inflows Granger-cause the current account in the cases of emerging market countries, while a causal relation is negligently detected in the cases of developed countries. Indeed, distinct from developed countries, the current accounts of emerging market countries are susceptible to the influence of foreign capital inflows. Given the relatively immature financial markets, emerging market countries should be cautious while embracing financial globalization and prudent measures to manage large capital inflows are necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Ho-don & Yang, Cheng-lang, 2008. "Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 434-461.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0441
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    Cited by:

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    3. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2022. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2016. "A Closer Look at EU Current Accounts," CEIS Research Paper 393, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Aug 2016.
    5. Oeking, Anne & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "On the relation between capital flows and the current account," Ruhr Economic Papers 565, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. A.Yasemin YALTA & Bahar BAYRAKTAR-SAGLAM, 2016. "Interaction Between Capital Flows And Current Account: A Dynamic Panel Causality Analysis Of 19 Emerging Market Economies For The Period 1980 To 2009," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(2), pages 25-32.
    7. Evan LAU & Nelson FU, 2011. "Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 34-42.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; Foreign capital inflows; Capital account crisis; Intertemporal balance; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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