Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfh/bbejor/v5y2016i4p193-209.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Sumera Arshad

    (Department of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan)

  • Amajd Ali

    (Department of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan)

Abstract
This study analyses the interrelationship of unemployment rate, interest rate and inflation rate in Pakistan over the period from 1974 to 2013. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model has been employed to find co-integration among variables of the models. Vector Error-Correction model is utilized for analysing short run dynamics of the models. The results do not provide significance trade-off between unemployment rate and inflation rate. Trade off exists in interest rate analysis over short run with inflation rate and unemployment rate. The empirical results show population growth and exchange rate have negative whereas external debt plays a positive role in determining unemployment rate in Pakistan. Money supply is revealed as major cause of inflation while exchange rate and imports have contributed negatively in inflation. The rate of interest has positive impact on domestic credit to private sector whereas it is negatively related to exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:5:y:2016:i:4:p:193-209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/index.php/BBE/article/view/260/215
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/index.php/BBE/article/view/260
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-283, April.
    2. Benati, Luca & Vitale, Giovanni, 2007. "Joint estimation of the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential output," Working Paper Series 797, European Central Bank.
    3. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    5. Ather H. Akbari & Wimal Rankaduwa, 2006. "Inflation Targeting in a Small Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 169-190.
    6. David Barr & John Campbell, "undated". "Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters, in: The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results, pages 1-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    11. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    13. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82496, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    15. Gianni Amisano & Massimiliano Serati, 2003. "What goes up sometimes stays up: shocks and institutions as determinants of unemployment persistence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 440-470, September.
    16. Rashid Amjad, 2005. "Pakistan's Poverty Reduction Strategy: Why Employment Matters," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(Special E), pages 144-178, September.
    17. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    18. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    20. James Laurenceson & Joseph C.H. Chai, 2003. "Financial Reform and Economic Development in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2714.
    21. Mah, Jai S., 2000. "An empirical examination of the disaggregated import demand of Korea--the case of information technology products," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 237-244.
    22. M. Ali Kemal, 2006. "Is Inflation in Pakistan a Monetary Phenomenon?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 213-220.
    23. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry & Munir A. S. Choudhary, 2006. "Why the State Bank of Pakistan should not Adopt Inflation Targeting," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 195-209.
    24. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    25. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    26. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    27. Karrar Hussain, 2009. "Monetary Policy Channels of Pakistan and Their Impact on Real GDP and Inflation," CID Working Papers 41, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    28. Tayyeb Shabbir & Ayaz Ahmed, 1994. "Are Government Budget Deficits Inflationary? Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 955-967.
    29. Charalambos Pattichis, 1999. "Price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand: results from UECMs and an application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1061-1071.
    30. Antonio Ribba, 2006. "The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 497-511, June.
    31. Faiz Bilquees, 1988. "Inflation in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence on the Monetarist and Structuralist Hypotheses," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 109-129.
    32. Sadia Tahir, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 319-342.
    33. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    34. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202.
    35. Ashfaque H. Khan & Mohammad Ali Qasim, 1996. "Inflation in Pakistan Revisited," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 747-759.
    36. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mohsin S. Khan, 2002. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is Rupee Devaluation In Inflationary?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 107-120.
    37. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amjad Ali & Chan Bibi, 2020. "Public Policies, Socio-Economic Environment And Crimes In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Amjad Ali & Ismail Senturk, 2019. "Justifying the Impact of Economic Deprivation, Maternal Status and Health infrastructure on Under-Five Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 140-154, September.
    3. Ali, Amjad & Bibi, Chan, 2016. "Determinants of Social Progress and its Scenarios under the role of Macroeconomic Instability: Empirics from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ali, Amjad, 2016. "Issue of Income Inequality under the perceptive of Macroeconomic Instability: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 74963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2013. "Disaggregated Import Demand Function: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    7. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Muhammad Irfan CHANI & Zahid PERVAIZ & Amatul R. CHAUDHARY, 2011. "Determination of Import Demand in Pakistan: The Role of Expenditure Components," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(8(561)), pages 93-110, August.
    9. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    10. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    11. ŞENTÜRK, İsmail & Ali, Amjad, 2019. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Gender Specific Life Expectancy in Turkey: A Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 97815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
    13. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad, 2017. "Socio-Economic Development, Demographic Changes And Total Labor Productivity In Pakistan: A Co-Integrational and Decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 82435, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2017.
    14. Mohamad Kassem & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2019. "Unemployment Rate, Population Density and Crime Rate in Punjab (Pakistan): An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 92-104, June.
    15. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali, 2016. "A Causality and Co-integration Analysis of Some Selected Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility: Empirics from Tunisia," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(1), pages 20-36, March.
    16. Tariq Hussain & Ahmad Raza Ul Mustafa & Makhdum M.I. & Kaleem Ullah, 2022. "Defense Expenditures, Fiscal Deficit And Debt Servicing Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 74-83, June.
    17. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2018. "Macroeconomic Environment and Taxes Revenues in Pakistan: An Application of ARDL Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(1), pages 30-39, March.
    18. Gulzar Ali & Said Zamin Shah & Ghulam Mustafa, 2019. "Testing the Reliability and Existence of IS-LM Model for Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(2), pages 13-23, June.
    19. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2016. "The Impact of Income Inequality, Environmental Degradation and Globalization on Life Expectancy in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(4), pages 182-193, April.
    20. Muhammad Shahid & Amjad Ali, 2015. "The Impact of Decentralized Economic Affairs Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 4(3), pages 136-148, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Rate; Unemployment Rate; Interest Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:5:y:2016:i:4:p:193-209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Muhammad Irfan Chani (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffhlpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.