Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/16-391.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Precautionary Saving in a Markovian Earnings Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Bar Light

    (University of Stanford)

Abstract
Under what conditions does an increase in the future income risk (in the sense of second order stochastic dominance) result in an increase in savings? This paper establishes a novel sufficient condition for the case in which income follows a Markov process. The sufficient condition applies to a broad class of preferences and processes that are often adopted in the applied literature. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Bar Light, 2018. "Precautionary Saving in a Markovian Earnings Environment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 138-147, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:16-391
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2017.12.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2017.12.004
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See https://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2017.12.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary Chamberlain & Charles A. Wilson, 2000. "Optimal Intertemporal Consumption Under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 365-395, July.
    2. Mirman, Leonard J, 1971. "Uncertainty and Optimal Consumption Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 179-185, January.
    3. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 114-138, April.
    4. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    5. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    6. Benveniste, L M & Scheinkman, J A, 1979. "On the Differentiability of the Value Function in Dynamic Models of Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 727-732, May.
    7. Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of Labor Income Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 58-79, January.
    8. Aliprantis, C.D. & Camera, G. & Ruscitti, F., 2008. "Interior optima and the Inada conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 293-297, May.
    9. Hopenhayn, Hugo A & Prescott, Edward C, 1992. "Stochastic Monotonicity and Stationary Distributions for Dynamic Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1387-1406, November.
    10. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Hayne E. Leland, 1968. "Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(3), pages 465-473.
    12. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    13. Carroll, Christopher D & Kimball, Miles S, 1996. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 981-992, July.
    14. Schechtman, Jack, 1976. "An income fluctuation problem," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 218-241, April.
    15. Philippe Weil, 1993. "Precautionary Savings and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 367-383.
    16. Bewley, Truman, 1977. "The permanent income hypothesis: A theoretical formulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 252-292, December.
    17. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz Pardo, 2016. "The Implications of Richer Earnings Dynamics for Consumption and Wealth," NBER Working Papers 21917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    19. Miller, Bruce L., 1976. "The effect on optimal consumption of increased uncertainty in labor income in the multiperiod case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 154-167, August.
    20. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, April.
    21. Frederick van der Ploeg, 1993. "A Closed-form Solution for a Model of Precautionary Saving," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 385-395.
    22. Miles Kimball & Philippe Weil, 2009. "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Smoothing across Time and Possibilities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 245-284, March.
    23. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    24. Wang, Jianli & Li, Jingyuan, 2016. "Lattice-based monotone comparative statics on saving with Selden/Kreps–Porteus preferences," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 132-138.
    25. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    26. A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
    27. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "Earnings Uncertainty and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 859-871, September.
    28. Schechtman, Jack & Escudero, Vera L. S., 1977. "Some results on "an income fluctuation problem"," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 151-166, December.
    29. Mark Huggett, 2004. "Precautionary Wealth Accumulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 769-781.
    30. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2011. "Earnings, Consumption and Life Cycle Choices," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 773-854, Elsevier.
    31. David Crainich & Louis Eeckhoudt & Alain Trannoy, 2013. "Even (Mixed) Risk Lovers Are Prudent," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1529-1535, June.
    32. repec:fth:starer:8415 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Rabault, Guillaume, 2002. "When do borrowing constraints bind? Some new results on the income fluctuation problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 217-245, February.
    34. Li, Huiyu & Stachurski, John, 2014. "Solving the income fluctuation problem with unbounded rewards," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 353-365.
    35. Shenghao Zhu & Alberto Bisin & Jess Benhabib, 2014. "The Wealth Distribution in Bewley Models with Investment Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 617, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Acikgoz, Omer, 2015. "On the Existence and Uniqueness of Stationary Equilibrium in Bewley Economies with Production," MPRA Paper 71066, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Apr 2016.
    37. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    38. Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
    39. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    40. Francesco Giavazzi & Michael McMahon, 2012. "Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 517-531, May.
    41. Gonzalo Paz Pardo & Giulio Fella & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2016. "The Implications of Richer Earnings Dynamics for Consumption, Wealth, and Welfare," 2016 Meeting Papers 149, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    42. Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
    43. Charalambos D. Aliprantis & Kim C. Border, 2006. "Infinite Dimensional Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-3-540-29587-7, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Qingyin & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2021. "A theory of the saving rate of the rich," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Antoine Bommier & François Le Grand, 2019. "Risk Aversion and Precautionary Savings in Dynamic Settings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1386-1397, March.
    3. Lehrer, Ehud & Light, Bar, 2018. "The effect of interest rates on consumption in an income fluctuation problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 63-71.
    4. Ma, Qingyin & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2022. "Asymptotic linearity of consumption functions and computational efficiency," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Donatella Baiardi & Marco Magnani & Mario Menegatti, 2020. "The theory of precautionary saving: an overview of recent developments," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 513-542, June.
    6. Light, Bar & Perlroth, Andres, 2021. "The Family of Alpha,[a,b] Stochastic Orders: Risk vs. Expected Value," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Bar Light, 2020. "Uniqueness of equilibrium in a Bewley–Aiyagari model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(2), pages 435-450, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suen, Richard M. H., 2011. "Concave consumption function and precautionary wealth accumulation," MPRA Paper 34774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mark Huggett, 2004. "Precautionary Wealth Accumulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 769-781.
    3. Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2016. "Optimal consumption and savings with stochastic income and recursive utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 292-331.
    4. Huggett, Mark & Ospina, Sandra, 2001. "Aggregate precautionary savings: when is the third derivative irrelevant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 373-396, October.
    5. Lehrer, Ehud & Light, Bar, 2018. "The effect of interest rates on consumption in an income fluctuation problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 63-71.
    6. Huggett, Mark & Vidon, Edouard, 2002. "Precautionary wealth accumulation: a positive third derivative is not enough," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 323-329, August.
    7. Heinzel Christoph & Richard Peter, 2021. "Precautionary motives with multiple instruments," Working Papers SMART 21-09, INRAE UMR SMART.
    8. S. Viswanathan & Adriano Rampini, 2013. "Household risk management," 2013 Meeting Papers 647, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Donatella Baiardi & Marco Magnani & Mario Menegatti, 2020. "The theory of precautionary saving: an overview of recent developments," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 513-542, June.
    10. Antoine Bommier & François Le Grand, 2019. "Risk Aversion and Precautionary Savings in Dynamic Settings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1386-1397, March.
    11. Sattinger, Michael, 2011. "The Markov consumption problem," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4-5), pages 409-416.
    12. Rampini, Adriano A. & Viswanathan, S., 2018. "Financing Insurance," CEPR Discussion Papers 12855, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Christoph Heinzel & Richard Peter, 2021. "Precautionary motives with multiple instruments [Motifs de précaution en cas de multiples instruments]," Working Papers hal-03484875, HAL.
    14. Heinzel, Christoph & Peter, Richard, 2021. "Precautionary motives with multiple instruments," Working Papers 316521, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    15. Bar Light, 2020. "Uniqueness of equilibrium in a Bewley–Aiyagari model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(2), pages 435-450, March.
    16. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2002. "Soft liquidity constraints and precautionary saving," Bank of England working papers 158, Bank of England.
    17. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201610 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Carroll, Christopher D. & Kimball, Miles S., 2006. "Precautionary Saving and Precautionary Wealth," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    19. Valério Ercolani, 2016. "The precautionary saving: theories, measurements and policies," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Wang, Neng, 2006. "Generalizing the permanent-income hypothesis: Revisiting Friedman's conjecture on consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 737-752, May.
    21. Jess Benhabib & Alberto Bisin & Shenghao Zhu, 2014. "The Wealth Distribution in Bewley Models with Investment Risk," NBER Working Papers 20157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Savings; Precautionary savings; Prudence; Income uncertainty; Income fluctuation problem; Comparative statics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:16-391. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.