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On the Value of Words: Inflation and Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

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  • Atish R Ghosh
  • Mahvash S Qureshi
  • Charalambos G Tsangarides
Abstract
To maintain price and exchange rate stability, many emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) de facto peg their exchange rates, intervening in the foreign exchange markets, but without formally committing to a peg. But in doing so, are they foregoing important benefits in terms of lower inflation? We argue that the de jure commitment, by making exit more costly, imparts greater credibility, which better anchors inflationary expectations, thereby leading to lower inflation than de facto pegging alone. Our empirical analysis, based on a novel data set of IMF de jure and de facto exchange rate regime classifications for 146 EMDCs over 1980–2010, finds that inflation is indeed lower—especially in emerging markets—by some 4 percentage points when the central bank both de jure commits and de facto pegs the exchange rate than when it de facto pegs alone. Thus, analogous to inflation targeting, where the formal commitment to the framework is thought to help anchor inflationary expectations, the de jure commitment to the peg may also be important to reap the full price-stability benefits of pegs.

Suggested Citation

  • Atish R Ghosh & Mahvash S Qureshi & Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2014. "On the Value of Words: Inflation and Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 288-322, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:62:y:2014:i:2:p:288-322
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Vincent Mugwira, 2023. "Exchange Rate (MIS-) Alignment: An Application of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (beer) Approach to Zimbabwe (1990-2018)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 128-141, September.
    2. Harms, Philipp & Knaze, Jakub, 2021. "Effective Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242340, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    4. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Institutions: Lessons from World Experience for MENA Countries," Working Papers 1311, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    5. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "An empirical assessment of exchange arrangements and inflation performance," MPRA Paper 73005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michael Bleaney & Lin Yin, 2015. "Price Adjustment in Currency Unions," Discussion Papers 15/06, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    7. Hou, Jia & Knaze, Jakub, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Regimes on Business Cycle Synchronization: A Robust Analysis," MPRA Paper 95182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. David Mautin Oke & Koye Gerry Bokana & Adebowale Soluade, 2017. "Re-examining Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Nexus: An ARDL Analysis for Nigerian Case," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(6), pages 253-266, DECEMBER.
    9. Jia Hou & Jakub Knaze, 2022. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycle Synchronization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 523-564, July.

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