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How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?

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  • Martin Ravallion
Abstract
Alternative scenarios are considered for reducing by one billion the number of people surviving on less than $1.25 a day. The low-case, “pessimistic” path to that goal envisages the developing world outside China returning to the slower pace of economic growth and poverty reduction of the 1980s and 1990s, but with China maintaining its progress. This path would take 50 years or more to lift one billion people out of poverty. A more optimistic path is identified that would maintain the developing world's (impressive) progress against absolute poverty since the turn of the century. This path would lift one billion people out of poverty by 2025–30. The optimistic path is consistent with both linear projections of the time-series data and nonlinear simulations of inequality-neutral growth for the developing world as a whole. Copyright 2013, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Ravallion, 2013. "How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 139-158, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbrobs:v:28:y:2013:i:2:p:139-158
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    1. Martin Ravallion & Gaurav Datt & Dominique van de Walle, 1991. "Quantifying Absolute Poverty In The Developing World," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 37(4), pages 345-361, December.
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    9. Newman, John L. & Azevedo, João Pedro & Saavedra, Jaime & Molina, Ezequiel, 2008. "The Real Bottom Line: Benchmarking Performance in Poverty Reduction in Latin America and the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 85585, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2010.
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