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Does Financial Stability Matter to the Fed in Setting US Monetary Policy?

Author

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  • Mikhail V. Oet
  • Kalle Lyytinen
Abstract
The Taylor rule presents a traditional approach to guiding and evaluating contemporary monetary policy as a function of inflation and economic slack. While the responsibilities of the Federal Reserve (Fed) include price stability and long-run growth, its mission has grown to include financial stability. Surprisingly, the question of whether financial stability ought to be considered as an element of monetary policy is hotly contested. This study aims to determine whether policymakers’ discussions of financial stability and other factors systematically explain deviations of observed policy rates from the rates implied by the Taylor rule. To this end, we conduct content analysis of the Fed’s monetary policy discussions to discover actual topics that enter into policy. We offer two main findings: First, discussion themes extracted from released Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes provide explanatory power beyond standard Taylor rule variables. Second, additional explanatory power is provided by a tri-mandate policy rule that accounts for changes in the economic and financial system as moderated by the evolving preferences of the policymakers. We show that a discussion-based thematic model with financial stability dominates Taylor-type rules during normal times. Moreover, the tri-mandate policy model with financial stability dominates Taylor-type rules in zero lower bound conditions. Taken together, these findings reveal that financial stability has mattered to the Fed continuously and remains critical in setting monetary policy in zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail V. Oet & Kalle Lyytinen, 2017. "Does Financial Stability Matter to the Fed in Setting US Monetary Policy?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 389-432.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:21:y:2017:i:1:p:389-432.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfw054
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    Cited by:

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    2. Arina Wischnewsky & David‐Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Financial stability and the Fed: Evidence from congressional hearings," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1192-1214, July.
    3. Curi, Claudia & Murgia, Lucia Milena, 2023. "Forecast Targeting and Financial Stability: Evidence from the European Central Bank and Bank of England," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    5. Kazinnik, Sophia & Papell, David H., 2021. "Monetary policy rules in practice: The case of Israel," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 308-320.
    6. Blot, Christophe & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Jaromir Baxa & Jan Zacek, 2022. "Monetary Policy and the Financial Cycle: International Evidence," Working Papers 2022/4, Czech National Bank.
    8. Arina Wischnewsky & David‐Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Financial stability and the Fed: Evidence from congressional hearings," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1192-1214, July.
    9. Zacek, Jan, 2020. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind? Simulations based on a DSGE model with an occasionally binding credit constraint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 293-311.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; Monetary policy; FOMC discussions; Taylor rule; Tri-mandate; Content analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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