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Economic-State Variation in Uncertainty-Yield Dynamics
[Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?]

Author

Listed:
  • Robert A Connolly
  • David Dubofsky
  • Chris Stivers
Abstract
We show there is a much stronger negative, dynamic relation between changes in economic uncertainty and Treasury yields over weaker economic times since at least 1990. We document this economic-state variation in uncertainty-yield dynamics for weekly and monthly change horizons, for nominal yields and real-yield proxies, for multiple economic-state identification methods, and for different economic uncertainty metrics. We present additional findings that suggest short-term fluctuations in precautionary-savings and consumption-smoothing forces are more impactful on interest rate dynamics during weaker economic times, especially relying on surveys of expected economic growth and inflation.Received February 8, 2019; editorial decision August 24, 2020 by Editor Nikolai Roussanov. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A Connolly & David Dubofsky & Chris Stivers, 2021. "Economic-State Variation in Uncertainty-Yield Dynamics [Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 60-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:11:y:2021:i:1:p:60-104.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/raaa023
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert A. Connolly & Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2022. "Stock returns and inflation shocks in weaker economic times," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 827-867, September.
    2. Bansal, Naresh & Stivers, Chris, 2022. "Bond risk’s role in the equity risk-return tradeoff," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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