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Electoral Competition Under the Threat of Political Unrest

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  • Matthew Ellman
  • Leonard Wantchekon
Abstract
We study elections in which one party (the strong party) controls a source of political unrest; e.g., this party could instigate riots if it lost the election. We show that the strong party is more likely to win the election when there is less information about its ability to cause unrest. This is because when the weak party is better informed, it can more reliably prevent political unrest by implementing a "centrist" policy. When there is uncertainty over the credibility of the threat, "posturing" by the strong party leads to platform divergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Ellman & Leonard Wantchekon, 2000. "Electoral Competition Under the Threat of Political Unrest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 499-531.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:115:y:2000:i:2:p:499-531.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1162/003355300554836
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathon W. Moses, 1994. "Abdication from National Policy Autonomy: What's Left to Leave?," Politics & Society, , vol. 22(2), pages 125-148, June.
    2. Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 796-805, September.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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