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The effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy rules on inflation expectations: theory and evidence

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  • Roger E. A. Farmer
Abstract
This paper has three parts. Part 1 constructs a classical economic model of inflation, augmented by a complete set of financial markets; I call this the core monetary model. Part 2 develops a series of calibrated examples to illustrate how the core monetary model explains the history of inflation after the Second World War, and Part 3 provides evidence to show that the unconventional monetary policy, followed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, was effective in stabilizing inflation expectations. The core monetary model provides a unified framework to explain how an interest rule can be used to control inflation in normal times, and to explain the purpose of unconventional monetary policy when policy attains the zero lower bound. I argue that management of the variation in the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet, is an important tool in a central bank’s arsenal that can be used to help prevent deflation in the wake of a financial crisis. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.

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  • Roger E. A. Farmer, 2012. "The effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy rules on inflation expectations: theory and evidence," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 622-639, WINTER.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:28:y:2012:i:4:p:622-639
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grs024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 229-264.
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    9. Kenneth Kuttner, 2006. "Can Central Banks Target Bond Prices?," NBER Working Papers 12454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    11. K. J. Arrow, 1964. "The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 31(2), pages 91-96.
    12. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bailey, Andrew & Bridges, Jonathan & Harrison, Richard & Jones, Josh & Mankodi, Aakash, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England working papers 899, Bank of England.
    2. Wieladek, Tomasz & Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: the story so far," CEPR Discussion Papers 11691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Kontonikas, Alexandros & MacDonald, Ronald & Saggu, Aman, 2013. "Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4025-4037.
    5. Christopher Bowdler & Amar Radia, 2012. "Unconventional monetary policy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 603-621, WINTER.
    6. Galindo Gil, Hamilton, 2021. "What kind of firm is more responsive to the unconventional monetary policy?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 188-200.
    7. Michael A. S. Joyce & Nick McLaren & Chris Young, 2012. "Quantitative easing in the United Kingdom: evidence from financial markets on QE1 and QE2," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 671-701, WINTER.
    8. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Shodipe Oladimeji T. & Shobande Olatunji Abdul, 2021. "Monetary Policy Dynamics in the United States," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 14-30, January.
    10. Cécile Bastidon & Philippe Gilles & Nicolas Huchet, 2016. "The ECB, Between Conservatism and Pragmatism," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(1), pages 25-52.
    11. Sheila Dow & Guðrún Johnsen & Alberto Montagnoli, 2015. "A critique of full reserve banking," Working Papers 2015008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    12. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2021. "The time-frequency analysis of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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