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Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Antje Hildebrandt

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

  • Duy T. Huynh-Olesen

    (European Central Bank, EU Countries Division)

  • Katharina Steiner

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

  • Karin Wagner

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

Abstract
The large movements in residential property prices in emerging markets observed over the past decade have raised interest in housing market developments. Within a cointegration framework applied to an unbalanced panel, we assess the relationship between residential property price developments, economic fundamentals and transition-specific factors in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) EU countries from 1999 to 2011.2 Our results show that demand-side fundamentals (disposable income, population, interest rates) and transition-specific factors related to housing demand (such as funding through remittances and credit growth) as well as construction costs on the supply side have been particularly important in residential property price movements. Nevertheless, these factors cannot fully explain residential property price movements, i.e. we find evidence that house prices moved above the level indicated by those factors in the years preceding the crisis. The sharp correction of residential property prices that took place following the outbreak of the financial crisis reversed these overshoots and brought house prices back to – and in some countries even below – the level indicated by the explanatory factors. This suggests that residential property prices are likely to rebound somewhat when economic conditions improve.

Suggested Citation

  • Antje Hildebrandt & Duy T. Huynh-Olesen & Katharina Steiner & Karin Wagner, 2013. "Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2013:i:2:b:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Beckmann, & Antje Hildebrandt & Krisztina Jäger-Gyovai, 2016. "Current risks in the CESEE residential property market: evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 4, pages v1, 103-1, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Andrea Boltho, 2020. "Southern and Eastern Europe in the Eurozone: convergence or divergence?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 74-93.
    3. Elena IONASCU, 2017. "The CEE housing markets before, during and after the transition: an overview of property prices and home ownership rates," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 9(3), pages 377-400, October.
    4. Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2013. "Private Sector Debt in CESEE EU Member States," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 30-47.
    5. Katharina Steiner, 2013. "Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries: Stocktaking of Data and a View on New Developments in Data Availability," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 85-97.
    6. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-75.
    7. Dubravko Mihaljek & Agne Subelyte, 2014. "Do we understand what drives house prices?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 9, pages 147-170, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Darius Kulikauskas, 2015. "Measuring fundamental housing prices in the Baltic States: empirical approach," ERES eres2015_31, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, potential output and the business cycle," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 14, pages 235-264, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Chryso Aristidou & George Thucydides, 2022. "Historical decomposition of the Cyprus Residential Property Prices," Working Papers 2022-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    11. Wojciech Kisiała & Izabela Rącka, 2021. "Spatial and Statistical Analysis of Urban Poverty for Sustainable City Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    12. Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Michael Landesmann & Carolina Lennon, 2016. "Monthly Report No. 5/2016," wiiw Monthly Reports 2016-05, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing markets; residential property prices; Central; Eastern and Southeastern Europe; cointegration framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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