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Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe

Author

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Martin Feldkircher

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

Abstract
We study empirically the role that initial conditions played in the emergence of cross-country heterogeneity in real output loss during the recent global financial crisis. We use a global sample covering over 150 countries and focus on the differences in the determinants of the crisis in emerging Europe compared to those in the rest of the world. We find that the differences in crisis severity in emerging Europe can only partly be explained by the factors that appear to be important for the global sample. Our results indicate that for the European emerging economies, growth above potential before the crisis coupled with external disequilibria as well as financial openness were particularly important mechanisms that increased the severity of the crisis in terms of output loss. We also find some evidence that pre-crisis FDI inflows softened the negative real output effects of the crisis in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 46-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2012:i:2:b:1
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Moser & Paul Hofmarcher, 2014. "Model Priors Revisited: Interaction Terms In Bma Growth Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 344-347, March.
    2. Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
    3. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    4. Piotr Boguszewski & Maria Lissowska, 2012. "Low Reliance on Credit Among Polish Firms: A Blessing in Disguise at a Time of Financial Crisis?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 7-8, pages 1-25.
    5. Bohl, Martin T. & Michaelis, Philip & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 195-207.
    6. Branimir Jovanović & Marjan Petreski, 2012. "Hemlock for policy response: Monetary policy, exchange rates and labour unions in SEE and CIS during the crisis," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 104, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Seppo Honkapohja & Iikka Korhonen, 2013. "Restarting growth in Europe after the Great Recession: CEE versus other countries," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence, chapter 3, pages 19-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jovanovic, Branimir & Petreski, Marjan, 2014. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and labor unions in SEE and the CIS during the financial crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 309-332.
    10. Lee, Kuo-Jung & Feldkircher, Martin & Chen, Yi-Chi, 2021. "Variable selection in finite mixture of regression models with an unknown number of components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; cross-country analysis; Bayesian model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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