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Scenario Analysis for the Perspectives of the EU-Russian Federation Relationship

Author

Listed:
  • ANDREEA – EMANUELA DRǍGOI

    (PhD. Center of European Studies Institute for World Economy, Romanian Academy)

  • NAPOLEON POP

    (PhD. New International Economic Order Institute for World Economy, Romanian Academy)

Abstract
In the current geopolitical environment the “cold” relations between the European Union (EU) and the Russian Federation are not only the consequence of the mutual imposed sanctions after the Ukrainian crisis, but also a result of EU’s increased influence in former Soviet space (especially through Baltic States integration and Eastern Partnership extension). Both Eastern Partnership and the Neighborhood Policy initiatives have bean considered as an imminent threat to the Russian hegemonic position in the former USSR member states. In our opinion the EU was not prepared to manage the relationship with Russian Federation in a pragmatic approach, hence in the post-Soviet Union era the Ukraine crisis has led to extreme tension between these two powers which reflected negatively on trade and diplomatic relations. Taking into consideration those realities, this paper presents a scenario analysis regarding the perspectives of the EU-Russian Federation relationship in the light of the impact of political and economical sanctions imposed after the Ukrainian crisis. Our research is based on a quantitative analysis of the two countries trade and FDI flows (before and post the Ukrainian crisis), but also on a qualitative approach based on the most relevant theories about international sanctions

Suggested Citation

  • Andreea – Emanuela Drǎgoi & Napoleon Pop, 2016. "Scenario Analysis for the Perspectives of the EU-Russian Federation Relationship," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 4(2), pages 66-73, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntu:ntugeo:vol4-iss2-16-066
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caruso Raul, 2003. "The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-36, April.
    2. Kaempfer, William H. & Lowenberg, Anton D., 2007. "The Political Economy of Economic Sanctions," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 27, pages 867-911, Elsevier.
    3. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht & Georg Wagner, 2014. "Are the Economic Sanctions against Russia Effective?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 28, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2009. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd Edition (paper)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4129, January.
    5. Shane Bonetti, 1998. "Distinguishing characteristics of degrees of success and failure in economic sanctions episodes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 805-813.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilia Mary Bălan, 2018. "Agriculture in Russian Federation: Policies, Issues and Results," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 6(1), June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic sanctions; Ukrainian crisis; EU-Russian Federation trade; FDI flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • N - Economic History
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Z - Other Special Topics
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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