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Corporate Credit Spreads and the Sovereign Ceiling in Latin America

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  • Martin Grandes
  • Demian Tupac Panigo
  • Ricardo Aníbal Pasquini
Abstract
We exploit a panel of 72 US dollar-denominated bonds issued by Latin American publicly listed firms between 1996 and 2004, a period of regional financial crises, to answer the following three questions: (1) Is sovereign risk a statistically and economically significant determinant of the corporate credit spread, controlling for firm- and bond-specific characteristics? (2) If yes, do market participants apply the sovereign ceiling rule adopted by rating agencies in the pricing of our bond market data? And (3) how do market views compare with the rating agencies ceiling policy for each corporate bond? We find strong evidence of an economically and statistically significant effect of sovereign risk on corporate spreads across different panel econometric specifications and bonds. Moreover, markets do not apply the ceiling rule in 77–90% of the bonds we sample and these findings are consistent with rating agencies’ policies toward the latter for about 50% of the firms. These results are robust to the inclusion of firm- and bond-specific variables derived from the structural approach to credit risk and to the business cycle in each country.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Grandes & Demian Tupac Panigo & Ricardo Aníbal Pasquini, 2017. "Corporate Credit Spreads and the Sovereign Ceiling in Latin America," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 1217-1240, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:5:p:1217-1240
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1174853
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhanu Pratap Singh Thakur & M. Kannadhasan & Vinay Goyal, 2018. "Determinants of corporate credit spread: evidence from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(1), pages 59-73, March.
    2. Herrera Dappe,Matias & Melecky,Martin & Turkgulu,Burak, 2022. "Fiscal Risks from Early Termination of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9972, The World Bank.
    3. Rui Esteves & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Like Father Like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults in Reduced Credit to the Private Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1515-1545, October.
    4. Herrera Dappe,Matias & Melecky,Martin & Turkgulu,Burak, 2022. "PPP Distress and Fiscal Contingent Liabilities in South Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10137, The World Bank.

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