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Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate

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  • David Ling
  • Gianluca Marcato
  • Pat McAllister
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implication of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, 'return chasing' behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the 10 market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a 'price pressure' effect. Although there is some evidence of return chasing behaviour, the short timescales involved suggest this finding may be due to delayed recording of flows relative to returns given the difficulties of market entry. We find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides pricing information.
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Suggested Citation

  • David Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Pat McAllister, 2009. "Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 359-383, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:39:y:2009:i:3:p:359-383
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-009-9182-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Ang & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Mark M. Westerfield, 2014. "Portfolio Choice with Illiquid Assets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(11), pages 2737-2761, November.
    2. Chris Brooks & Matthew Lamport & Kesseven Padachi & Vinesh Sannassee & Keshav Seetah & Boopen Seetanah, 2017. "The Impact of Foreign Real Estate Investment on Land Prices: Evidence from Mauritius," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 131-146, November.
    3. Zifeng Feng, 2022. "How Does Local Economy Affect Commercial Property Performance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 361-383, October.
    4. Vassilios Babalos & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nicola Spagnolo, 2021. "Equity fund flows and stock market returns in the USA before and after the global financial crisis: a VAR-GARCH-in-mean analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 539-555, February.
    5. Kieran Farrelly & Simon Stevenson, 2016. "Performance drivers of private real estate funds," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 214-235, July.
    6. Devaney, Steven & Livingstone, Nicola & McAllister, Pat & Nanda, Anupam, 2019. "Capitalization rates and transaction activity in international office markets: A global perspective," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Qiulin Ke & Karen Sieracki, 2018. "Exploring sentiment-driven trading behavior of different types of investors in London office market," ERES eres2018_112, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. Gianluca Marcato, 2018. "Liquidity Pricing of Illiquid Assets," ERES eres2018_215, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Steven Devaney & Pat McAllister & Anupam Nanda, 2017. "Determinants of transaction activity in commercial real estate markets: evidence from European and Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 251-268, October.
    10. Marcel Arsenault & Jim Clayton & Liang Peng, 2013. "Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 243-265, August.
    11. David H. Downs & Steffen Sebastian & Christian Weistroffer & René-Ojas Woltering, 2016. "Real Estate Fund Flows and the Flow-Performance Relationship," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 347-382, May.
    12. Gianluca Marcato & Anupam Nanda, 2022. "Asymmetric Patterns of Demand-Supply Mismatch in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 440-472, April.

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