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Past experience of uncertainty affects risk aversion

Author

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  • Friederike Mengel
  • Elias Tsakas
  • Alexander Vostroknutov
Abstract
In an experiment with more than 500 participants we study how past experience of uncertainty (imperfect knowledge of the state space) affects risk preferences. Participants in our experiment choose between a sure outcome and a lottery in 32 periods. All treatments are exactly identical in periods 17–32 but differ in periods 1–16. In the early periods of the risk treatment there is perfect information about the lottery; in the ambiguity Treatment participants perfectly know the outcome space but not the associated probabilities; in the unawareness treatment participants have imperfect knowledge about both outcomes and probabilities. We observe strong treatment effects on behavior in periods 17–32. In particular, participants who have been exposed to an environment with very imperfect knowledge of the state space subsequently choose lotteries with high (low) variance less (more) often compared to other participants. Estimating individual risk attitudes from choices in periods 17–32 we find that the distribution of risk attitude parameters across our treatments can be ranked in terms of first order stochastic dominance. Our results show how exposure to environments with different degrees of uncertainty can affect individuals’ subsequent risk-taking behavior. Copyright Economic Science Association 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Friederike Mengel & Elias Tsakas & Alexander Vostroknutov, 2016. "Past experience of uncertainty affects risk aversion," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(1), pages 151-176, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:expeco:v:19:y:2016:i:1:p:151-176
    DOI: 10.1007/s10683-015-9431-6
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    Cited by:

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    4. Jetter, Michael & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Roth, Sebastian, 2020. "Becoming sensitive: Males’ risk and time preferences after the 2008 financial crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Karni, Edi & Vierø, Marie-Louise, 2017. "Awareness of unawareness: A theory of decision making in the face of ignorance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 301-328.
    6. Yiwei Liu & Li Diao & Ling Xu, 2021. "The impact of childhood experience of starvations on the health of older adults: Evidence from China," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 515-531, March.
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    8. Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem & Torul, Orhan, 2018. "Optimal Ramsey taxation with endogenous risk aversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 87-92.
    9. Dong, Zhiqiang & Guo, Yuchen & Zhao, Jun, 2022. "How people respond to risk after being exposed to the risk of loss: An experimental study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Tai-Sen He & Fuhai Hong, 2018. "Risk breeds risk aversion," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(4), pages 815-835, December.
    11. Kamal, Mustafa & Blacklow, Paul, 2022. "Self-control and risk aversion in the Australian gender wage gap," Working Papers 2022-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    12. Guo, Julie & Tymula, Agnieszka, 2021. "Waterfall illusion in risky choice – exposure to outcome-irrelevant gambles affects subsequent valuation of risky gambles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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    14. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2018. "Uncertainty, currency excess returns, and risk reversals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 228-241.
    15. Araujo, Felipe A. & Piermont, Evan, 2023. "Unawareness and risk taking: The role of context," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 61-79.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk preferences; Ambiguity; Unawareness; Experiments; D80; D81; C91;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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