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Interest Rate Determination in China: Past, Present, and Future

Author

Listed:
  • Dong He

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Honglin Wang

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Xiangrong Yu

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract
How should we think about the determination of interest rates in China after interest rate liberalization? Would effective deposit rates, lending rates, and bond yields move higher or lower? We argue that interest rates in a liberalized environment would need to be anchored by monetary policy. To achieve price and output (or employment) stabilization, the policy rate should be set close to China’s equilibrium or natural rate. We sketch three preliminary approaches to estimation of the natural rate. Based on this analysis, we argue that interest rates on large deposits and short-term money-market rates would likely move higher following liberalization. The effect on effective lending rates is somewhat ambiguous, as the contestability of the banking sector and the competition from the bond markets are likely to increase. We leave the determination of the curvature of the yield curve to future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong He & Honglin Wang & Xiangrong Yu, 2015. "Interest Rate Determination in China: Past, Present, and Future," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 255-277, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2015:q:5:a:7
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    Cited by:

    1. Breitenlechner, Max & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2019. "China's monetary policy and the loan market : How strong is the credit channel in China?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2020. "Financial Reforms, Capital Investment and Financial Intermediation in China," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 58-86, June.
    3. Xiangyi Zhou & Zheng Pei & Botao Qin, 2021. "Assessing Market Competition in the Chinese Banking Industry Based on a Conjectural Variation Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(2), pages 73-98, March.
    4. Biswajit Maitra, 2017. "Monetary and fiscal factors in nominal interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under a deregulated regime," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Ran Tao, 2014. "Bank Lending Margins in China and the Effects of the June 2012 Liberalization," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-19.
    6. Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Predicting China’s Monetary Policy with Forecast Combinations," Working Papers BAWP-2019-07, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    7. Dong He & Paul Luk & Wenlang Zhang, 2016. "Internationalisation of the Renminbi as an Investing and a Funding Currency: Analytics and Prospects," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 295-323, August.
    8. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2014. "Financial openness of China and India- Implications for capital account liberalisation," Working Papers 827, Bruegel.
    9. Hu, Jiafei & Yuan, Haishan, 2021. "Interest arbitrage under capital controls: Evidence from reported entrepôt trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Nicholas Borst & Nicholas Lardy, 2015. "Maintaining Financial Stability in the People's Republic of China during Financial Liberalization," Working Paper Series WP15-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Andrey Sinyakov & Alexey Porshakov, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest for Russia: Is 'Navigating by the Stars' Useful?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(4), pages 3-47, December.
    12. John Ammer & John Rogers & Gang Wang & Yang Yu, 2020. "Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1285, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Dmitry Kreptsev & Alexey Porshakov & Sergey Seleznev & Andrey Sinyakov, 2016. "The equilibrium interest rate: a measurement for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps13, Bank of Russia.
    14. Hongyi Chen & Michael Funke & Ivan Lozev & Andrew Tsang, 2020. "To Guide or Not to Guide? Quantitative Monetary Policy Tools and Macroeconomic Dynamics in China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 49-94, October.
    15. Li, Haoyu & Tao, Qizhi & Xiao, Hongying & Li, Guowei, 2019. "Money market funds, bank loans and interest rate liberalization: Evidence from an emerging market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 426-435.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Max Breitenlechner & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2023. "China’s Monetary Policy and the Loan Market: How Strong is the Credit Channel in China?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 555-577, July.
    18. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
    19. Breitenlechner, Max & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2019. "China's monetary policy and the loan market: How strong is the credit channel in China?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    20. Tiantian Zhang & Ken’ichi Matsumoto & Kei Nakagawa, 2021. "The Relative Importance of Determinants of the Solar Photovoltaic Industry in China: Analyses by the Diamond Model and the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-20, October.
    21. John Ammer & John Rogers & Gang Wang & Yang Yu, 2023. "Chinese Asset Managers’ Monetary Policy Forecasts and Fund Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 598-616, January.
    22. Anton Grui & Volodymyr Lepushynskyi & Sergiy Nikolaychuk, 2018. "A Neutral Real Interest Rate in the Case of a Small Open Economy: Application to Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 243, pages 4-20.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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