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Jobless recoveries and the wait-and-see hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Ashley Hodgson
  • Stacey L. Schreft
  • Aarti Singh
Abstract
In January 2005, after more than three years of sluggish employment growth, the U.S. economy finally recovered the jobs lost during the 2001 recession. Baffled by such a delayed rebound in payrolls, many speculated about the cause. Inevitably, observers compared the 2001 and 1991 recoveries, both widely considered to have been jobless. Schreft and Singh showed previously that one common feature of the first year of the jobless recoveries was the greater use of just-in-time employment practices. They also speculated that the greater availability of just-in-time employment practices contributed to the recoveries? lack of job growth. This explanation of delayed hiring is termed the ?wait-and-see hypothesis.? Flexible hiring practices allow firms to more easily adjust output in the short term without hiring full-time, potentially permanent workers. This practice is especially effective around the troughs of business cycles, when there is uncertainty about the strength of the recovery. As a result, firms are willing to wait to hire until they see sufficient improvement in business conditions to justify expanding payrolls. Schreft, Singh, and Hodgson take a longer-term perspective, considering the behavior of employment in the first three years of the jobless recoveries. They also describe how a wait-and-see approach to hiring can contribute to such recoveries

Suggested Citation

  • Ashley Hodgson & Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2005. "Jobless recoveries and the wait-and-see hypothesis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 90(Q IV), pages 81-99.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2005:i:qiv:p:81-99:n:v.90no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Guanyi, 2017. "General Equilibrium Evaluation of Temporary Employment," MPRA Paper 80047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gomis, Roger. & Khatiwada, Sameer., 2016. "Firm dynamics and business cycle what doesn't kill you makes you stronger?," ILO Working Papers 994909323402676, International Labour Organization.
    3. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez‐Loscos & Gabriel Pérez‐Quirós, 2018. "Great Moderation And Great Recession: From Plain Sailing To Stormy Seas?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(4), pages 2297-2321, November.
    4. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2011. "High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1322-1339, August.
    5. Grace Weishi Gu, 2018. "Employment and the Cyclical Cost of Worker Benefits," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 96-120, April.
    6. Thijs Van Rens & Marija Vukotić, 2023. "Delayed Adjustment and Persistence in Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1325-1356, September.
    7. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2014. "The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2009. "Mananging Financial Instability: Why Prudence is not Enough?," Working Papers 86, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    9. Yilmaz Akyuz, 2008. "Managing Financial Instability in Emerging Markets: A Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 2008/4, Turkish Economic Association.
    10. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2014. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 669-701, July.
    11. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Jochen Hartwig, 2014. "Testing Okun’s law with Swiss industry data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(29), pages 3581-3590, October.
    13. Engemann, Kristie M. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Whatever Happened To The Business Cycle? A Bayesian Analysis Of Jobless Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 709-726, November.
    14. Yılmaz AKYÜZ, 2004. "Managing financial instability and shocks," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 19(219), pages 5-17.
    15. Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "Employment Recovery? after the Great Recession," Economics Policy Note Archive 13-03, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. Edward S. Knotek & Stephen J. Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q III), pages 5-33.
    17. Yang, Guanyi, 2018. "Welfare under friction and uncertainty: General equilibrium evaluation of temporary employment in the U.S," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 404-413.
    18. Régis Barnichon, 2009. "Demand-driven job separation: reconciling search models with the ins and outs of unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Bruno Dallago & Chiara Guglielmetti, 2011. "The Eurozone Crisis: Institutional Setting, Structural Vulnerability, and Policies," Openloc Working Papers 1112, Public policies and local development.

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