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Has Core Inflation Been Doing a Good Job in Brazil?

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  • da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira
  • Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues
Abstract
This paper assesses the performance of the core inflation measures calculated by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). The evidence shows that they do not meet some key statistical criteria that a good core inflation measure should have: unbiasedness and the ability to forecast inflation. That performance stems, in part, from the lack of a well-grounded statistical and economical basis underlying them. Three new measures are built and assessed using the same criteria. The evidence shows that although their behaviour is more in accordance to what the theory claims, they still lack the ability to help forecasting inflation. Hence both the BCB and the market should use core inflation cautiously.

Suggested Citation

  • da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2011. "Has Core Inflation Been Doing a Good Job in Brazil?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:y:2011:i:2:a:3040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho & Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2014. "A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation," Working Papers Series 367, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Vicente da Gama Machado & Raquel Nadal & Fernando Ryu Ramos Kawaoka, 2020. "A Data-Rich Measure of Underlying Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 516, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Rahmanov, Ramiz & Adigozalov, Shaig & Huseynov, Salman, 2013. "Azərbaycan Mərkəzi Bankının inflyasiya hədəfi: Baza yoxsa manşet inflyasiya? [The target of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan: Core or headline inflation?]," MPRA Paper 69825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ferreira, Pedro Costa & Mattos, Daiane Marcolino de & Ardeo, Vagner Laerte, 2017. "Triple-Filter core inflation: a measure of the inflation trajectory," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(4), December.
    5. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2012. "Are Core Inflation Directional Forecasts Informative?," Working Papers Series 266, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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